TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Michal Macurak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 20 - Czech 9 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1164111113117911
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Michal Macurak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Michal Macurak at 64.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 15–25 Michal Macurak Jan Krupnik has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3364.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-25 in 40
Macurak
Correct
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1584 vs Macurak 1702
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 20% vs Macurak 60%
Macurak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 50% vs Macurak 80%
Macurak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -1 · Macurak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Macurak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 2.375 / Macurak 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Macurak)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273900
Krupnik2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 104 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Macurak1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 68 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik3wins
AwayMacurak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik66.7%2 of 3
AwayMacurak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik3Macurak7n = 10Macurak took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik2Macurak8n = 10Macurak took 8 of 10
S3Krupnik4Macurak6n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik3Macurak5n = 8Macurak took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikMacurakK − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.640.1−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikMacurakBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 972 vs 265 / 51651.2%51.4%498 / 972 vs 265 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakKrupnik 2.38/Macurak 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 16:15J. Krupnik2791080M. Macurak341112113
LOct 3 · 15:45J. Krupnik30771151M. Macurak4111118113
LOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik321156101M. Macurak4281111123
WOct 3 · 10:45J. Krupnik4991118113M. Macurak381151661
LSep 17 · 12:45J. Krupnik2257100M. Macurak341111123
LSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik411391181M. Macurak4615119113
WSep 15 · 11:40J. Krupnik42115411113M. Macurak4771111992
LSep 13 · 15:40J. Krupnik26741141M. Macurak4211119113
WSep 11 · 11:40J. Krupnik48117811113M. Macurak3861111732
LSep 5 · 10:15J. Krupnik29611751M. Macurak3911611113
J. Krupnik10
LOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 9 · 16:44F. Chaloupka1.6791161172J. Krupnik2.10116118113LOct 9 · 16:15J. Krupnik2.2591080M. Macurak1.571112113LOct 9 · 14:45B. Moravec1.441111113J. Krupnik2.632640LOct 9 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.611151211113J. Krupnik2.2041114782WOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122WOct 8 · 11:45R. Sedlacek1.91111179102J. Krupnik1.80771111123WOct 8 · 11:15T. Krenek1.8341360J. Krupnik1.831115113WOct 8 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.671191011113M. Moravec2.1071112582LOct 8 · 08:50D. Velky Jr1.9111911113J. Krupnik1.80811691
M. Macurak10
WOct 10 · 14:10K. Kleprlik1.83911461M. Macurak1.8311811113LOct 9 · 17:15B. Moravec1.501211113M. Macurak2.5010440WOct 9 · 16:15J. Krupnik2.2591080M. Macurak1.571112113WOct 9 · 15:15M. Macurak2.251611113F. Chaloupka1.5714980LOct 9 · 13:45B. Moravec1.501112113M. Macurak2.5081080WOct 3 · 17:14M. Macurak1.831114163T. Krenek1.83612140WOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151WOct 3 · 14:45M. Macurak1.911211413113T. Krenek1.80106111572WOct 3 · 13:45M. Macurak2.001111119113K. Kleprlik1.7361351132WOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.801156101M. Macurak1.9181111123
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