TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krenek vs Jan Krupnik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111315611––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 45–43 Jan Krupnik Jan Krupnik has won 43 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-43 in 88
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1687 vs Krupnik 1566
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 80% vs Krupnik 40%
Krenek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 80% vs Krupnik 30%
Krenek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek +2 · Krupnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.833 / Krupnik 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krenek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13262183
Krenek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Krupnik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek6wins
AwayKrupnik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek66.7%4 of 6
AwayKrupnik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek6Krupnik4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krenek4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S3Krenek5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Krenek6Krupnik4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S5Krenek2Krupnik1n = 3Krenek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekKrupnikKrenek − KrupnikBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.3−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 1002 vs 494 / 96451.5%51.2%516 / 1002 vs 494 / 964Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.83/Krupnik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 10:40T. Krenek531112118113J. Krupnik4781471172
WOct 3 · 14:15T. Krenek4312119113J. Krupnik391091191
WSep 18 · 09:45T. Krenek4071111113J. Krupnik29117381
WSep 17 · 09:45T. Krenek4516117113J. Krupnik431491191
WSep 15 · 07:15T. Krenek3911116113J. Krupnik26641151
WSep 13 · 10:40T. Krenek41711111113J. Krupnik4311116962
LSep 11 · 10:10T. Krenek3411341152J. Krupnik48711118113
LSep 11 · 08:38T. Krenek351111491J. Krupnik4491311113
LSep 11 · 08:10T. Krenek361441171J. Krupnik4516117113
LAug 25 · 09:10T. Krenek4311712131J. Krupnik49131110153
T. Krenek10
WOct 8 · 12:15M. Moravec2.3846110T. Krenek1.531111133WOct 8 · 09:45R. Sedlacek2.005670T. Krenek1.731111113WOct 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.831111715113J. Skvrna1.8379111782LOct 6 · 12:10T. Krenek1.736760B. Mrowetz2.001111113WOct 6 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.7381471172T. Krenek2.001112118113WOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113WOct 6 · 09:08T. Krenek1.671112911113D. Velky Jr2.10710111362WOct 6 · 07:40M. Moravec2.004880T. Krenek1.731111113LOct 6 · 07:10R. Sedlacek2.0011115113T. Krenek1.73881191WOct 6 · 06:10T. Krenek1.67711511113D. Velky Jr2.1011911952
J. Krupnik10
WOct 8 · 11:45R. Sedlacek1.91111179102J. Krupnik1.80771111123WOct 8 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.671191011113M. Moravec2.1071112582LOct 8 · 08:50D. Velky Jr1.9111911113J. Krupnik1.80811691WOct 8 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5781080J. Krupnik2.251112113LOct 8 · 07:15D. Velky Jr2.10121012113J. Krupnik1.6710121091LOct 8 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.83111110582R. Benes1.83991211113WOct 6 · 16:40D. Skulina1.80119111172J. Krupnik1.91131185113LOct 6 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4491213113J. Krupnik2.6311101111LOct 6 · 15:15L. Slavik2.001111113J. Krupnik1.735780LOct 6 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.7381471172T. Krenek2.001112118113
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