TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Ivan Heuman 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511311115611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched: 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 63 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 60.3%
63 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 13–12 Ivan Heuman Ivan Heuman has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0460.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Velky Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velky Jr 1613 vs Heuman 1602
Velky Jr
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velky Jr 40% vs Heuman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velky Jr 50% vs Heuman 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velky Jr +1 · Heuman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Velky Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelky Jr 1.50 / Heuman 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Velky Jr)-6.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13274190
Velky Jr1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 67 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it68% 50 of 74
Heuman2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back28% 16 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVelky Jr6wins
AwayHeuman4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVelky Jr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelky Jr75%3 of 4
AwayHeuman50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velky Jr4Heuman6n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S2Velky Jr6Heuman4n = 10Velky Jr took 6 of 10
S3Velky Jr8Heuman2n = 10Velky Jr took 8 of 10
S4Velky Jr2Heuman4n = 6Heuman took 4 of 6
S5Velky Jr2Heuman1n = 3Velky Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVelky JrHeumanV − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.835.80.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelky JrHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 617 vs 233 / 46749.4%49.9%305 / 617 vs 233 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Velky JrVelky Jr 1.50/Heuman 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.3%
Velky Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 07:45D. Velky Jr341211113I. Heuman2610970
WAug 25 · 21:15D. Velky Jr351111133I. Heuman2678110
WAug 25 · 17:40D. Velky Jr46411118123I. Heuman46118611102
WAug 24 · 18:40D. Velky Jr361111143I. Heuman2329120
LAug 17 · 20:10D. Velky Jr2367100I. Heuman341111123
WAug 13 · 08:45D. Velky Jr529101111113I. Heuman4511126972
LAug 13 · 06:15D. Velky Jr4211118572I. Heuman43371111113
LJul 21 · 08:50D. Velky Jr27561151I. Heuman3811115113
LJul 21 · 06:10D. Velky Jr25441161I. Heuman4211119113
WJul 5 · 18:40D. Velky Jr3831111133I. Heuman351194111
D. Velky Jr10
LOct 10 · 20:39D. Velky Jr1.7361411672J. Skalicky2.001112811113WOct 10 · 18:40J. Skalicky1.911271191D. Velky Jr1.8014114113LOct 10 · 18:10J. Krupnik1.731261111113D. Velky Jr2.00101131342WOct 10 · 16:40D. Velky Jr1.6211116113J. Krupnik2.15581191LOct 10 · 16:10M. Macurak1.6781111113D. Velky Jr2.10112481LOct 10 · 15:10D. Velky Jr2.504860K. Kleprlik1.501111113WOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 8 · 08:50D. Velky Jr1.9111911113J. Krupnik1.80811691LOct 8 · 08:15R. Benes1.61111110113D. Velky Jr2.20981281WOct 8 · 07:15D. Velky Jr2.10121012113J. Krupnik1.6710121091
I. Heuman10
WOct 10 · 21:08J. Krupnik1.67116551I. Heuman2.1051111113LOct 10 · 19:10I. Heuman2.101111391J. Krupnik1.6713811113WOct 10 · 17:40J. Skalicky1.83117381I. Heuman1.8331111113LOct 9 · 20:40I. Heuman1.57119521A. Kanak2.2561111113LOct 9 · 20:10I. Heuman1.674101181D. Vitasek2.1011125113WOct 9 · 18:40K. Kleprlik1.83811101142I. Heuman1.83119127113WOct 9 · 18:10A. Kanak2.20771191I. Heuman1.6111118113WOct 8 · 20:40P. Marsalek1.9197110I. Heuman1.801111133LOct 8 · 20:10I. Heuman1.4474140P. Marsalek2.631111163LOct 8 · 18:40M. Zaskodny1.501111113I. Heuman2.505260
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