TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Dalibor Velky Jr 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106111131113114
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dalibor Velky Jr @ 2.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-11
Point 74 set 4, 10-11 · our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
74 points drawn · the score is 18 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jan Krupnik 22–21 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Velky Jr beat Krupnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 17:36Sent to Pro: Dalibor Velky Jr @ 2.00 · Lost
54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-21 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1575 vs Velky Jr 1615
Velky Jr
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 20% vs Velky Jr 60%
Velky Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 30% vs Velky Jr 50%
Velky Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -4 · Velky Jr +1
Krupnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.727 / Velky Jr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupnik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273938
Krupnik1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 136 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it73% 95 of 131
Velky Jr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 121 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik3wins
AwayVelky Jr7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVelky Jr leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik100%3 of 3
AwayVelky Jr100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik3Velky Jr7n = 10Velky Jr took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik7Velky Jr3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S3Krupnik5Velky Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Krupnik2Velky Jr5n = 7Velky Jr took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikVelky JrK − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.338.2+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 975 vs 304 / 61551.1%49.4%498 / 975 vs 304 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Velky JrKrupnik 1.73/Velky Jr 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dalibor Velky Jr @ 2.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 16:40J. Krupnik33581191D. Velky Jr3911116113
LOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik38991191D. Velky Jr4011117113
LOct 8 · 08:50J. Krupnik34811691D. Velky Jr4211911113
LOct 8 · 07:15J. Krupnik4110121091D. Velky Jr45121012113
LOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik26122120D. Velky Jr391411143
WSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik431616113D. Velky Jr33141450
WSep 28 · 19:15J. Krupnik331111113D. Velky Jr279990
LSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik45911101142D. Velky Jr41113124113
LSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik51131111882D. Velky Jr45154411113
WSep 13 · 15:10J. Krupnik3911116113D. Velky Jr31681161
J. Krupnik10
WOct 10 · 19:10I. Heuman2.101111391J. Krupnik1.6713811113LOct 10 · 16:40D. Velky Jr1.6211116113J. Krupnik2.15581191LOct 10 · 15:40J. Krupnik3.251179101K. Kleprlik1.3331111123LOct 10 · 14:40J. Krupnik2.38114111192M. Macurak1.53611137113LOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 9 · 16:44F. Chaloupka1.6791161172J. Krupnik2.10116118113LOct 9 · 16:15J. Krupnik2.2591080M. Macurak1.571112113LOct 9 · 14:45B. Moravec1.441111113J. Krupnik2.632640LOct 9 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.611151211113J. Krupnik2.2041114782WOct 8 · 13:15J. Krupnik1.83111156143T. Krenek1.83891111122
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 10 · 18:40J. Skalicky1.911271191D. Velky Jr1.8014114113WOct 10 · 16:40D. Velky Jr1.6211116113J. Krupnik2.15581191LOct 10 · 16:10M. Macurak1.6781111113D. Velky Jr2.10112481LOct 10 · 15:10D. Velky Jr2.504860K. Kleprlik1.501111113WOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 8 · 08:50D. Velky Jr1.9111911113J. Krupnik1.80811691LOct 8 · 08:15R. Benes1.61111110113D. Velky Jr2.20981281WOct 8 · 07:15D. Velky Jr2.10121012113J. Krupnik1.6710121091LOct 8 · 05:45J. Gembala1.401111173D. Velky Jr2.7538150LOct 7 · 08:44D. Velky Jr1.83141191192L. Slavik1.83169118113
Upcoming Matches
J. Krupnik
Nothing scheduled
D. Velky Jr
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