TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Skalicky vs Dalibor Velky Jr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 21 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214711114911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Skalicky above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Skalicky 1–2 Dalibor Velky Jr Jiri Skalicky has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Velky Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skalicky 1632 vs Velky Jr 1602
Skalicky
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skalicky 60% vs Velky Jr 40%
Skalicky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skalicky 60% vs Velky Jr 40%
Skalicky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skalicky -1 · Velky Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Velky Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkalicky 1.909 / Velky Jr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Velky Jr)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273906
Skalicky1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Velky Jr1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 67 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it68% 50 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkalicky1wins
AwayVelky Jr2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderVelky Jr leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skalicky1Velky Jr2n = 3Velky Jr took 2 of 3
S2Skalicky2Velky Jr1n = 3Skalicky took 2 of 3
S3Skalicky2Velky Jr1n = 3Skalicky took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkalickyVelky JrS − VBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.333.7−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkalickyVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 219 vs 304 / 61651.1%49.4%112 / 219 vs 304 / 616Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Velky JrSkalicky 1.91/Velky Jr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Velky Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 26 · 06:45J. Skalicky218760D. Velky Jr331111113
WAug 29 · 07:45J. Skalicky331111113D. Velky Jr208480
LMar 14 · 18:40J. Skalicky4351411762D. Velky Jr481112311113
J. Skalicky10
LOct 10 · 17:40J. Skalicky1.83117381I. Heuman1.8331111113WOct 4 · 08:53J. Skalicky1.611111113J. Krupnik2.205680LOct 4 · 08:15J. Skalicky1.83811431J. Travnicek1.8311911113WOct 4 · 06:45F. Chaloupka1.8361111552J. Skalicky1.83119811113WOct 4 · 06:15J. Krupnik2.00881181J. Skalicky1.7311116113WSep 27 · 08:39J. Skalicky1.671111153A. Kanak2.1069130LSep 27 · 07:40J. Skalicky2.1081111872D. Stusek1.67113611113LSep 27 · 06:40J. Skalicky1.53951171A. Veliiev2.3811119113WSep 27 · 05:40J. Skalicky1.73691111113A. Kanak2.0011119732WSep 26 · 08:44A. Veliiev1.834870J. Skalicky1.831111113
D. Velky Jr10
LOct 10 · 18:10J. Krupnik1.731261111113D. Velky Jr2.00101131342WOct 10 · 16:40D. Velky Jr1.6211116113J. Krupnik2.15581191LOct 10 · 16:10M. Macurak1.6781111113D. Velky Jr2.10112481LOct 10 · 15:10D. Velky Jr2.504860K. Kleprlik1.501111113WOct 10 · 13:40J. Krupnik1.73991191D. Velky Jr2.0011117113WOct 8 · 08:50D. Velky Jr1.9111911113J. Krupnik1.80811691LOct 8 · 08:15R. Benes1.61111110113D. Velky Jr2.20981281WOct 8 · 07:15D. Velky Jr2.10121012113J. Krupnik1.6710121091LOct 8 · 05:45J. Gembala1.401111173D. Velky Jr2.7538150LOct 7 · 08:44D. Velky Jr1.83141191192L. Slavik1.83169118113
Upcoming Matches
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D. Velky Jr
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