TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Richard Jancak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611115911811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:34 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Matus at 59.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 12–12 Richard Jancak Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3459.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1429 vs Jancak 1360
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Jancak 60%
Jancak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Jancak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +2 · Jancak +3
Jancak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Matus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.666 / Jancak 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Matus)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13272392
Matus1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 93 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it76% 67 of 88
Jancak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 37 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayJancak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJancak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus50%3 of 6
AwayJancak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus6Jancak4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S2Matus4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S3Matus3Jancak7n = 10Jancak took 7 of 10
S4Matus3Jancak6n = 9Jancak took 6 of 9
S5Matus2Jancak1n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusJancakM − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.741.3−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 476 vs 147 / 29252.5%50.3%250 / 476 vs 147 / 292Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.67/Jancak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:40J. Matus34611981R. Jancak3811511113
WAug 29 · 21:10J. Matus48111178113R. Jancak4688111182
LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2662180R. Jancak421111203
LAug 23 · 14:15J. Matus3511561122R. Jancak46511118113
WAug 13 · 08:43J. Matus3811115113R. Jancak36891181
LAug 13 · 06:10J. Matus34951191R. Jancak4111118113
WAug 3 · 18:45J. Matus3912511113R. Jancak361011871
WAug 2 · 18:10J. Matus46811115113R. Jancak4411981152
LJul 24 · 12:10J. Matus36117991R. Jancak4071111113
LJul 23 · 21:15J. Matus4111810121R. Jancak4471112143
J. Matus10
WOct 10 · 05:40J. Matus1.441111123M. Sobota2.6365100WOct 9 · 08:40P. Jokiel2.206350J. Matus1.601111113LOct 9 · 07:40J. Matus2.0011118582O. Vaclahovsky1.73991111113LOct 9 · 06:40J. Matus1.44911101182P. Jokiel2.63117126113LOct 9 · 05:40J. Matus2.001178101J. Sindler1.7331111123WOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133WOct 6 · 08:54J. Matus1.831111811113O. Skvor1.8371311452
R. Jancak10
WOct 10 · 06:10P. Sturma2.201411471R. Jancak1.6116911113WSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113WSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113LSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182WSep 11 · 08:48R. Jancak1.61712511113P. Sturma2.20111011972LSep 11 · 08:15J. Sindler1.5311611113R. Jancak2.38911781WSep 11 · 07:15R. Jancak1.6791111113P. Sturma2.10116861LSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722WSep 8 · 13:14R. Jancak1.36911137113R. Sedivy3.00118111162
Upcoming Matches
J. Matus
Nothing scheduled
R. Jancak
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