TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Jaroslav Sindler 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1137118111012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 73 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 26–32 Jaroslav Sindler Jiri Matus has won 26 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-32 in 58
Sindler
Correct
gap of 6 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1462 vs Sindler 1397
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Sindler 80%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Sindler 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Sindler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.00 / Sindler 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sindler)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266670
Matus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back38% 13 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Sindler1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 147 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it88% 49 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it69% 92 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus2wins
AwaySindler8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus33.3%1 of 3
AwaySindler85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S2Matus4Sindler6n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Matus6Sindler4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S4Matus3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S5Matus1Sindler3n = 4Sindler took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusSindlerM − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.042.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 470 vs 443 / 85452.8%51.9%248 / 470 vs 443 / 854Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerMatus 2.00/Sindler 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 07:10J. Matus4291111113J. Sindler35119691
LSep 21 · 05:40J. Matus42111011462J. Sindler47512811113
LSep 20 · 07:45J. Matus4061112111J. Sindler4211414133
LSep 17 · 08:10J. Matus326101151J. Sindler3911125113
LSep 14 · 06:40J. Matus43123117102J. Sindler511011711123
WSep 9 · 06:45J. Matus47119511113J. Sindler4391111752
LAug 28 · 08:10J. Matus28451181J. Sindler3811115113
LAug 26 · 08:45J. Matus391391161J. Sindler4415117113
LAug 26 · 08:10J. Matus351111671J. Sindler3913411113
LAug 13 · 06:40J. Matus4291171142J. Sindler42114115113
J. Matus10
WOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133WOct 6 · 08:54J. Matus1.831111811113O. Skvor1.8371311452WOct 6 · 07:45O. Skvor1.4011115842J. Matus2.75591111113WOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113LOct 5 · 09:18O. Skvor1.36491111113J. Matus3.0011119262LOct 5 · 07:40J. Matus2.2551150O. Skvor1.571113113
J. Sindler10
WOct 8 · 13:10A. Strelec1.9112681342J. Sindler1.8010111111113LOct 8 · 11:40J. Sindler2.25119111162O. Skvor1.57611138113WOct 8 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5371111113M. Kliment2.38116861WOct 8 · 09:40J. Sindler1.671171312113A. Strelec2.10511111452WOct 7 · 13:09J. Sindler2.381411117113A. Drozd1.53126131192LOct 7 · 12:10J. Sindler1.2546100M. Kliment3.751111123WOct 7 · 10:40A. Drozd1.44116711112J. Sindler2.63511118133WOct 7 · 10:10M. Lorenc1.5311911982J. Sindler2.38911411113LOct 5 · 12:38L. Krupnik Jr2.101111123J. Sindler1.6775100LOct 5 · 11:40J. Sindler2.63111361172O. Skvor1.44515117113
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