TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Sindler vs Adam Strelec 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11571113111214115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 100 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 55.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 21–20 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3055.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-20 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1375 vs Strelec 1383
Strelec
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 60% vs Strelec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 40% vs Strelec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +1 · Strelec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sindler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.666 / Strelec 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Sindler)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261776
Sindler1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 144 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it88% 49 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it68% 91 of 133
Strelec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 40 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler4wins
AwayStrelec6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrelec leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler60%3 of 5
AwayStrelec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler5Strelec5n = 10split evenly
S2Sindler5Strelec5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler5Strelec5n = 10split evenly
S4Sindler5Strelec3n = 8Sindler took 5 of 8
S5Sindler1Strelec4n = 5Strelec took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerStrelecSindler − StrelecBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.9−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 850 vs 129 / 26251.8%49.2%440 / 850 vs 129 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.67/Strelec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 08:43J. Sindler43111061152A. Strelec47512118113
WSep 23 · 06:45J. Sindler4361111153A. Strelec351138131
WSep 21 · 09:25J. Sindler49113119153A. Strelec48811511132
LSep 21 · 06:40J. Sindler4481171172A. Strelec44117114113
LSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler257990A. Strelec331111113
LSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler4291111742A. Strelec44117411113
WSep 8 · 06:15J. Sindler331111113A. Strelec229580
LSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler50139513102A. Strelec5611111111123
LSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler358111151A. Strelec4411139113
WSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler4011117113A. Strelec36891181
J. Sindler10
WOct 8 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5371111113M. Kliment2.38116861WOct 7 · 13:09J. Sindler2.381411117113A. Drozd1.53126131192LOct 7 · 12:10J. Sindler1.2546100M. Kliment3.751111123WOct 7 · 10:40A. Drozd1.44116711112J. Sindler2.63511118133WOct 7 · 10:10M. Lorenc1.5311911982J. Sindler2.38911411113LOct 5 · 12:38L. Krupnik Jr2.101111123J. Sindler1.6775100LOct 5 · 11:40J. Sindler2.63111361172O. Skvor1.44515117113LOct 5 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5311118692L. Krupnik Jr2.38471111113LOct 5 · 09:40J. Sindler1.9191181282D. Stefek1.801191110113WOct 4 · 12:44V. Molin1.6711118882J. Sindler2.10541111113
A. Strelec10
WOct 8 · 11:10A. Strelec2.751111113O. Skvor1.409990LOct 6 · 09:25P. Jokiel1.6111137113A. Strelec2.207111191WOct 6 · 08:15P. Jokiel1.5091112962A. Strelec2.501161011113LOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113WOct 6 · 05:45O. Skvor1.301081111122A. Strelec3.40121179143WOct 5 · 08:49A. Strelec1.6171111113L. Krupnik Jr2.20118761LOct 5 · 08:10A. Strelec1.4491111772L. Krupnik Jr2.63116511113WOct 5 · 06:40J. Matus1.8071612962A. Strelec1.9111141011113LOct 5 · 06:10O. Skvor1.611111113A. Strelec2.206670WOct 4 · 16:40P. Sturma1.61111011752A. Strelec2.20312911113
Upcoming Matches
J. Sindler
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A. Strelec
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