TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Jokiel vs Adam Strelec 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111161210911611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:05 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePatrik Jokiel to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Patrik Jokiel at 57.4%
96 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 9–4 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0557.4%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 9.3pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Jokiel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Jokiel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1397 vs Strelec 1384
Jokiel
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 60% vs Strelec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 60% vs Strelec 40%
Jokiel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel +2 · Strelec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Jokiel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.50 / Strelec 2.50
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jokiel)-9.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251731
Jokiel1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite49% won 39 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it68% 25 of 37
Strelec2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 39 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel8wins
AwayStrelec2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJokiel leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel100%4 of 4
AwayStrelec33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel4Strelec6n = 10Strelec took 6 of 10
S2Jokiel8Strelec2n = 10Jokiel took 8 of 10
S3Jokiel8Strelec2n = 10Jokiel took 8 of 10
S4Jokiel4Strelec3n = 7Jokiel took 4 of 7
S5Jokiel2Strelec1n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielStrelecJ − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.6+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 489 vs 128 / 26046.2%49.2%226 / 489 vs 128 / 260Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JokielJokiel 1.50/Strelec 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 14:15P. Jokiel331111113A. Strelec207490
WJun 2 · 08:50P. Jokiel4181111113A. Strelec35117981
WJun 2 · 07:15P. Jokiel47111177113A. Strelec4165111182
WMay 12 · 08:50P. Jokiel331111113A. Strelec175750
WMay 12 · 07:15P. Jokiel3611311113A. Strelec32711951
LMay 7 · 08:40P. Jokiel2781180A. Strelec351113113
LMay 7 · 08:10P. Jokiel4161111492A. Strelec48117811113
WMay 4 · 06:45P. Jokiel521011119113A. Strelec4512851192
WApr 24 · 08:15P. Jokiel4021116113A. Strelec391161481
WJan 22 · 07:45P. Jokiel4061112113A. Strelec341151081
P. Jokiel10
WOct 6 · 09:25P. Jokiel1.6111137113A. Strelec2.207111191WOct 6 · 06:45O. Skvor1.539730P. Jokiel2.381111113WOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113LOct 4 · 17:10V. Molin1.8361111113P. Jokiel1.87112751WOct 4 · 15:45V. Molin1.61911971P. Jokiel2.2011811113LOct 4 · 15:15P. Sturma2.25181211113P. Jokiel1.572010991WOct 4 · 14:15P. Jokiel1.571111113A. Strelec2.257490LOct 2 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.4011112101P. Sturma2.7581311123WOct 2 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.5761111113P. Sturma2.25116761WOct 2 · 10:40P. Chvojka1.73107100P. Jokiel2.001211123
A. Strelec10
LOct 6 · 09:25P. Jokiel1.6111137113A. Strelec2.207111191LOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113WOct 6 · 05:45O. Skvor1.301081111122A. Strelec3.40121179143WOct 5 · 08:49A. Strelec1.6171111113L. Krupnik Jr2.20118761LOct 5 · 08:10A. Strelec1.4491111772L. Krupnik Jr2.63116511113WOct 5 · 06:40J. Matus1.8071612962A. Strelec1.9111141011113LOct 5 · 06:10O. Skvor1.611111113A. Strelec2.206670WOct 4 · 16:40P. Sturma1.61111011752A. Strelec2.20312911113LOct 4 · 16:15A. Strelec3.004740P. Sturma1.361111113LOct 4 · 14:15P. Jokiel1.571111113A. Strelec2.257490
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