TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Sindler vs Dominik Stefek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111198111210811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:31 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 100 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 8–9 Dominik Stefek Jaroslav Sindler has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1396 vs Stefek 1384
Sindler
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 20% vs Stefek 40%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 30% vs Stefek 50%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +1 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.909 / Stefek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245773
Sindler1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 73 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back34% 21 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Stefek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 23 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it63% 15 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler5wins
AwayStefek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler100%3 of 3
AwayStefek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Sindler5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Sindler4Stefek2n = 6Sindler took 4 of 6
S5Sindler3Stefek1n = 4Sindler took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerStefekSindler − StefekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.939.5−1.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 842 vs 57 / 11651.9%49.1%437 / 842 vs 57 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekSindler 1.91/Stefek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 09:15J. Sindler5711121211113D. Stefek53714101392
LSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler2010550D. Stefek341211113
LSep 11 · 09:20J. Sindler229580D. Stefek331111113
LSep 11 · 06:45J. Sindler48101181182D. Stefek42124114113
WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler46811411123D. Stefek50119119102
WSep 5 · 13:40J. Sindler50611913113D. Stefek44116111152
WAug 27 · 09:09J. Sindler4312713113D. Stefek4110111191
LAug 27 · 07:40J. Sindler247980D. Stefek331111113
WAug 13 · 12:40J. Sindler341211113D. Stefek2210570
LAug 13 · 10:10J. Sindler355119101D. Stefek4311911123
J. Sindler10
LOct 5 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5311118692L. Krupnik Jr2.38471111113WOct 4 · 12:44V. Molin1.6711118882J. Sindler2.10541111113LOct 4 · 12:10M. Lorenc1.7381111113J. Sindler2.00118671LOct 4 · 11:10J. Sindler—5611101V. Molin—11117123LOct 4 · 09:40O. Skvor1.80711711113J. Sindler1.9111711982LOct 2 · 12:38J. Sindler1.539770P. Chvojka2.381111113WOct 2 · 11:40P. Chvojka2.10111112262J. Sindler1.67961411113LOct 2 · 11:10P. Sturma2.0051111113J. Sindler1.73117991WOct 2 · 10:10J. Sindler1.807111112133P. Jokiel1.911181310112LOct 2 · 08:40P. Jokiel1.7391111113J. Sindler2.00112881
D. Stefek10
WOct 2 · 20:45R. Benesz2.38121196132D. Stefek1.531081111153LOct 2 · 19:40T. Ogrocki2.00119912113D. Stefek1.73711111072LOct 2 · 19:10R. Benesz2.381111159113D. Stefek1.53513131152WOct 2 · 18:10D. Stefek1.831111113B. Jonas1.839850LOct 1 · 13:15D. Stefek1.91911611112P. Chlad1.80116115133WOct 1 · 11:45P. Chlad1.6191311682D. Stefek2.201111511113WOct 1 · 11:15L. Krupnik Jr2.0010630D. Stefek1.731211113WOct 1 · 10:15D. Stefek1.61491111113P. Sturma2.2011118762LOct 1 · 08:53D. Stefek4.508111141P. Chlad1.1711138113LOct 1 · 08:15O. Vaclahovsky1.571012138113D. Stefek2.251210111182
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