TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Patrik Jokiel 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111171012116811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:38 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jiri Matus at 65.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 4–5 Patrik Jokiel Jiri Matus has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3865.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1424 vs Jokiel 1366
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Jokiel 0%
Matus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Jokiel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Jokiel -5
Jokiel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Matus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.444 / Jokiel 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Matus)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266725
Matus1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 93 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it76% 67 of 88
Jokiel2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back34% 27 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayJokiel5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderJokiel leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus66.7%4 of 6
AwayJokiel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus6Jokiel3n = 9Matus took 6 of 9
S2Matus6Jokiel3n = 9Matus took 6 of 9
S3Matus6Jokiel3n = 9Matus took 6 of 9
S4Matus2Jokiel4n = 6Jokiel took 4 of 6
S5Matus0Jokiel3n = 3Jokiel took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMatusJokielM − JBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match39.437.3+2.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 473 vs 229 / 49852.4%46%248 / 473 vs 229 / 498Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.44/Jokiel 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 9 · 06:40J. Matus49911101182P. Jokiel47117126113
WOct 8 · 08:39J. Matus331111113P. Jokiel237790
LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus387812111P. Jokiel45111110133
LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus40111151032P. Jokiel49961112113
WOct 2 · 08:10J. Matus341211113P. Jokiel2110650
WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus4111811113P. Jokiel28411761
WSep 17 · 05:40J. Matus371115113P. Jokiel2571350
LJun 7 · 08:10J. Matus35911871P. Jokiel4211911113
LMar 5 · 20:10J. Matus4814513792P. Jokiel5612111111113
J. Matus10
LOct 9 · 07:40J. Matus2.0011118582O. Vaclahovsky1.73991111113LOct 9 · 05:40J. Matus2.001178101J. Sindler1.7331111123WOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133WOct 6 · 08:54J. Matus1.831111811113O. Skvor1.8371311452WOct 6 · 07:45O. Skvor1.4011115842J. Matus2.75591111113WOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113
P. Jokiel10
LOct 9 · 06:10O. Vaclahovsky1.80101111113P. Jokiel1.91128691LOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.61126951L. Snr2.20101111113LOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.80126951L. Krupnik Jr1.90101111113LOct 8 · 06:40O. Skvor1.611111113P. Jokiel2.206680WOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133WOct 6 · 09:25P. Jokiel1.6111137113A. Strelec2.207111191LOct 6 · 08:15P. Jokiel1.5091112962A. Strelec2.501161011113WOct 6 · 06:45O. Skvor1.539730P. Jokiel2.381111113WOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113
Upcoming Matches
J. Matus
Nothing scheduled
P. Jokiel
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