TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Oldrich Vaclahovsky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119811511811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:36 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 54.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 6–10 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Jiri Matus has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3654.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vaclahovsky
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Vaclahovsky
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1424 vs Vaclahovsky 1447
Vaclahovsky
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
Vaclahovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Vaclahovsky 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -2 · Vaclahovsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vaclahovsky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 2.00 / Vaclahovsky 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266741
Matus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back38% 13 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Vaclahovsky1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 32 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayVaclahovsky6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVaclahovsky leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus50%2 of 4
AwayVaclahovsky66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus4Vaclahovsky6n = 10Vaclahovsky took 6 of 10
S2Matus6Vaclahovsky4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S3Matus5Vaclahovsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Matus4Vaclahovsky5n = 9Vaclahovsky took 5 of 9
S5Matus2Vaclahovsky4n = 6Vaclahovsky took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusVaclahovskyM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.641.6−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 473 vs 133 / 27652.4%48.2%248 / 473 vs 133 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyMatus 2.00/Vaclahovsky 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 07:40J. Matus4311118582O. Vaclahovsky51991111113
WOct 1 · 09:25J. Matus531111119113O. Vaclahovsky4155131172
WOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus46411811123O. Vaclahovsky42117113102
LAug 31 · 13:40J. Matus4191111372O. Vaclahovsky45118411113
LJul 24 · 10:10J. Matus195770O. Vaclahovsky331111113
LJul 22 · 12:44J. Matus3735111172O. Vaclahovsky48111178113
WJul 22 · 11:15J. Matus3911611113O. Vaclahovsky30911641
LJun 7 · 07:10J. Matus34912491O. Vaclahovsky43111011113
LJun 4 · 09:15J. Matus4412912562O. Vaclahovsky5310111011113
WJun 4 · 07:45J. Matus4071111113O. Vaclahovsky30116761
J. Matus10
LOct 9 · 06:40J. Matus1.44911101182P. Jokiel2.63117126113LOct 9 · 05:40J. Matus2.001178101J. Sindler1.7331111123WOct 8 · 08:39P. Jokiel2.007790J. Matus1.731111113LOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus1.577812111P. Jokiel2.25111110133WOct 6 · 08:54J. Matus1.831111811113O. Skvor1.8371311452WOct 6 · 07:45O. Skvor1.4011115842J. Matus2.75591111113WOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113
O. Vaclahovsky10
LOct 9 · 07:10J. Sindler1.83118811113O. Vaclahovsky1.8351111942WOct 9 · 06:10O. Vaclahovsky1.80101111113P. Jokiel1.91128691LOct 1 · 09:25J. Matus2.101111119113O. Vaclahovsky1.6755131172WOct 1 · 08:15O. Vaclahovsky1.571012138113D. Stefek2.251210111182WOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus2.10411811123O. Vaclahovsky1.67117113102LSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 12:15J. Sindler1.67791141O. Vaclahovsky2.1011119113WSep 29 · 11:15O. Vaclahovsky1.7391111113M. Kliment2.00113911LSep 29 · 09:45A. Drozd1.806111011113O. Vaclahovsky1.9111512682
Upcoming Matches
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O. Vaclahovsky
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