TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Sindler vs Oldrich Vaclahovsky 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11412105116111214
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 96 set 5, 12-14 · our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 7–10 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Jaroslav Sindler has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sindler beat Vaclahovsky 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0254.0%Our read57.8%to break even at 1.73
short by 3.8pp57.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.73 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Vaclahovsky
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1434 vs Vaclahovsky 1447
Vaclahovsky
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 80% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +4 · Vaclahovsky +1
Sindler
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Vaclahovsky 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268205
Sindler1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 147 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it88% 49 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it69% 92 of 134
Vaclahovsky2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler5wins
AwayVaclahovsky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler60%3 of 5
AwayVaclahovsky60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler5Vaclahovsky5n = 10split evenly
S2Sindler5Vaclahovsky5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler5Vaclahovsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Sindler5Vaclahovsky4n = 9Sindler took 5 of 9
S5Sindler2Vaclahovsky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerVaclahovskyS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.938.0+2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 857 vs 133 / 27652%48.2%446 / 857 vs 133 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Vaclahovsky 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 07:10J. Sindler49118811113O. Vaclahovsky4051111942
LSep 29 · 12:15J. Sindler31791141O. Vaclahovsky4211119113
LAug 26 · 13:10J. Sindler41981681O. Vaclahovsky47111114113
WAug 26 · 11:40J. Sindler45121111113O. Vaclahovsky25143441
WAug 7 · 09:08J. Sindler331111113O. Vaclahovsky187740
WAug 7 · 06:15J. Sindler41611211113O. Vaclahovsky4111511772
WJul 24 · 11:40J. Sindler4211118123O. Vaclahovsky399911101
LJul 22 · 11:45J. Sindler49111091182O. Vaclahovsky46612116113
LJul 15 · 13:20J. Sindler27211681O. Vaclahovsky3711411113
LJul 15 · 10:45J. Sindler511111118102O. Vaclahovsky45413511123
J. Sindler10
WOct 9 · 13:09O. Skvor1.673157121J. Sindler2.10111311143LOct 9 · 11:45O. Skvor1.61111144113J. Sindler2.2098111152WOct 9 · 11:15P. Sturma2.101181211102J. Sindler1.67911147123WOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681WOct 9 · 08:10P. Jokiel2.1031280J. Sindler1.671114113WOct 9 · 07:10J. Sindler1.83118811113O. Vaclahovsky1.8351111942WOct 9 · 05:40J. Matus2.001178101J. Sindler1.7331111123WOct 8 · 13:10A. Strelec1.9112681342J. Sindler1.8010111111113LOct 8 · 11:40J. Sindler2.25119111162O. Skvor1.57611138113WOct 8 · 10:40J. Sindler1.5371111113M. Kliment2.38116861
O. Vaclahovsky10
WOct 9 · 07:40J. Matus2.0011118582O. Vaclahovsky1.73991111113LOct 9 · 07:10J. Sindler1.83118811113O. Vaclahovsky1.8351111942WOct 9 · 06:10O. Vaclahovsky1.80101111113P. Jokiel1.91128691LOct 1 · 09:25J. Matus2.101111119113O. Vaclahovsky1.6755131172WOct 1 · 08:15O. Vaclahovsky1.571012138113D. Stefek2.251210111182WOct 1 · 06:45P. Chlad1.8091171182O. Vaclahovsky1.91119118113LOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus2.10411811123O. Vaclahovsky1.67117113102LSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 12:15J. Sindler1.67791141O. Vaclahovsky2.1011119113WSep 29 · 11:15O. Vaclahovsky1.7391111113M. Kliment2.00113911
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