TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Holik vs Jachym Sebl 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111181181210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched: 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Jachym Sebl at 57.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 8–8 Jachym Sebl Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4557.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 0.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sebl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1540 vs Sebl 1642
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 40% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 60% vs Sebl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik -3 · Sebl -1
Holik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Sebl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 2.00 / Sebl 1.727
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Sebl)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13271812
Holik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back36% 9 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back25% 3 of 12
Sebl1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 83 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it78% 69 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik3wins
AwaySebl7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySebl77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik1Sebl9n = 10Sebl took 9 of 10
S2Holik4Sebl6n = 10Sebl took 6 of 10
S3Holik3Sebl7n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S4Holik5Sebl1n = 6Holik took 5 of 6
S5Holik1Sebl2n = 3Sebl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikSeblH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.6−1.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 210 vs 301 / 62554.3%48.2%114 / 210 vs 301 / 625Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeblHolik 2.00/Sebl 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 1 · 11:55S. Holik3893111142J. Sebl41111144113
LJun 28 · 14:50S. Holik2914780J. Sebl381611113
WJun 26 · 06:55S. Holik4211117133J. Sebl354911111
LJun 25 · 10:09S. Holik27124110J. Sebl381411133
WJun 25 · 08:55S. Holik43101111113J. Sebl27127351
WJun 7 · 08:50S. Holik50912711113J. Sebl50111011992
LApr 27 · 13:50S. Holik387111191J. Sebl4011135113
LApr 27 · 10:20S. Holik2789100J. Sebl341111123
LApr 20 · 11:20S. Holik2899100J. Sebl341111123
LMar 30 · 13:25S. Holik4781181192J. Sebl49117119113
S. Holik10
LOct 10 · 11:55S. Holik1.9167141192Z. Muhlhauser1.801111125113LSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 21:25D. Pasek2.00111111143S. Holik1.731396121LSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik1.83137110Z. Muhlhauser1.831511133WSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113WSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113WSep 18 · 14:30P. Vodal1.8511117111S. Holik1.8591311133
J. Sebl10
LOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:50J. Cousin2.753670J. Sebl1.401111113WOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:20T. Rein2.10111491J. Sebl1.6711911113WOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113WOct 3 · 12:55J. Sebl1.331111113A. Brandtl Jr3.255580LOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143WOct 3 · 10:55J. Sebl2.20111116113V. Koutnik1.6111591192LSep 27 · 17:55J. Dohnal1.401111113J. Sebl2.759640LSep 27 · 16:20J. Dohnal1.5311117163J. Sebl2.384711141
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