TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Bereiter vs Evzen Rychlik 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113117118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Bereiter to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Marek Bereiter @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Evzen Rychlik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Marek Bereiter at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Marek Bereiter 1–0 Evzen Rychlik Evzen Rychlik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 15:37Sent to Pro: Marek Bereiter @ 1.73 · Won
54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bereiter
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bereiter 1620 vs Rychlik 1622
Rychlik
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bereiter 60% vs Rychlik 20%
Bereiter
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bereiter 30% vs Rychlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bereiter +1 · Rychlik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Bereiter) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rychlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBereiter 1.727 / Rychlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bereiter)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269344
Bereiter1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 17 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Rychlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 3 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBereiter1wins
AwayRychlik0wins
Bereiter leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBereiterRychlikB − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.032.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBereiterRychlikBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 74 vs 122 / 22054.1%55.5%40 / 74 vs 122 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BereiterBereiter 1.73/Rychlik 2.00
Hit
What we said
54%
Bereiter · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Marek Bereiter @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–0
Bereiter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WApr 12 · 10:00M. Bereiter44111111113E. Rychlik32313971
M. Bereiter10
WOct 10 · 15:30D. Heczko2.6388140M. Bereiter1.441111163WOct 10 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.501111113A. Rinka2.505540LOct 8 · 17:30A. Walek2.501111113M. Bereiter1.505880LOct 8 · 16:00M. Bereiter1.831011119102F. Laburda1.83126711123WOct 8 · 15:30A. Walek2.1011771192M. Bereiter1.67611117113WOct 8 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.731111113J. Snr2.009470LSep 12 · 13:00Z. Pagac1.5711811113M. Bereiter2.25811871LSep 12 · 12:00Z. Pagac1.671311133M. Bereiter2.10119110LSep 12 · 11:00D. Unzeitig2.38111287113M. Bereiter1.53610111192LSep 12 · 10:30M. Bereiter1.571112651A. Walek2.2571411113
E. Rychlik10
LOct 10 · 15:00A. Rinka2.751111113E. Rychlik1.407970LOct 10 · 14:30E. Rychlik1.53811612112D. Heczko2.381171110133WOct 4 · 09:06E. Rychlik1.601111711113D. Heczko2.2051311682LOct 4 · 08:30R. Skacelik2.00125811113E. Rychlik1.73101111892LOct 4 · 07:30E. Rychlik1.91311412112D. Langer1.801181110133WOct 4 · 06:30D. Heczko2.001391061E. Rychlik1.73111112113WSep 26 · 16:59E. Rychlik1.331111113J. Schwan3.255650WSep 26 · 16:00E. Rychlik1.401111113J. Schwan2.756780LSep 26 · 15:30A. Walek1.83111110113E. Rychlik1.83381241LSep 26 · 14:00E. Rychlik1.579280D. Langer2.251111113
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