TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Evzen Rychlik vs David Heczko 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111761112101113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeEvzen Rychlik to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvzen Rychlik above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 100 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Evzen Rychlik at 62.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Rychlik 4–2 David Heczko David Heczko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1862.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rychlik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Rychlik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rychlik 1647 vs Heczko 1550
Rychlik
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rychlik 60% vs Heczko 20%
Rychlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rychlik 50% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rychlik +1 · Heczko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Rychlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRychlik 1.533 / Heczko 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rychlik)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13270099
Rychlik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Heczko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRychlik4wins
AwayHeczko2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderRychlik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRychlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHeczko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rychlik2Heczko4n = 6Heczko took 4 of 6
S2Rychlik4Heczko2n = 6Rychlik took 4 of 6
S3Rychlik2Heczko4n = 6Heczko took 4 of 6
S4Rychlik3Heczko2n = 5Rychlik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricRychlikHeczkoR − HBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match42.339.8+2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRychlikHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 225 vs 266 / 49155.1%54.2%124 / 225 vs 266 / 491Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RychlikRychlik 1.53/Heczko 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Rychlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 4 · 09:06E. Rychlik511111711113D. Heczko4351311682
WOct 4 · 06:30E. Rychlik45111112113D. Heczko381391061
LAug 30 · 16:00E. Rychlik2571080D. Heczko341112113
WAug 21 · 11:00E. Rychlik4514119113D. Heczko351241181
WAug 8 · 09:30E. Rychlik47811116113D. Heczko4211651192
LAug 8 · 08:00E. Rychlik411015791D. Heczko47121311113
E. Rychlik10
LOct 10 · 15:00A. Rinka2.751111113E. Rychlik1.407970WOct 4 · 09:06E. Rychlik1.601111711113D. Heczko2.2051311682LOct 4 · 08:30R. Skacelik2.00125811113E. Rychlik1.73101111892LOct 4 · 07:30E. Rychlik1.91311412112D. Langer1.801181110133WOct 4 · 06:30D. Heczko2.001391061E. Rychlik1.73111112113WSep 26 · 16:59E. Rychlik1.331111113J. Schwan3.255650WSep 26 · 16:00E. Rychlik1.401111113J. Schwan2.756780LSep 26 · 15:30A. Walek1.83111110113E. Rychlik1.83381241LSep 26 · 14:00E. Rychlik1.579280D. Langer2.251111113WAug 30 · 17:01V. Zidek1.839850E. Rychlik1.831111113
D. Heczko10
LOct 4 · 09:06E. Rychlik1.601111711113D. Heczko2.2051311682LOct 4 · 08:00D. Langer1.361311113D. Heczko3.0011970WOct 4 · 07:00R. Skacelik1.807121191D. Heczko1.9111147113LOct 4 · 06:30D. Heczko2.001391061E. Rychlik1.73111112113LOct 1 · 13:00V. Adamczyk1.67671111113D. Heczko2.1011119552LOct 1 · 12:00T. Petrek1.5351113113D. Heczko2.381141191LOct 1 · 11:00L. Martinak2.101111133D. Heczko1.6716110WOct 1 · 10:30D. Heczko2.20981711113V. Adamczyk1.61111115892WOct 1 · 08:59J. Mikula2.50611481D. Heczko1.5011611113WOct 1 · 08:30D. Heczko1.73811711113J. Mikula2.0011811782
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