TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Petrek vs David Heczko 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111141311119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Petrek to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Petrek above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Tomas Petrek at 60.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Petrek 3–0 David Heczko David Heczko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5860.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Petrek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Petrek
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petrek 1624 vs Heczko 1581
Petrek
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petrek 80% vs Heczko 60%
Petrek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petrek 70% vs Heczko 50%
Petrek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Petrek +1 · Heczko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Petrek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetrek 1.533 / Heczko 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Petrek)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222537
Petrek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 24 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Heczko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 44 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePetrek3wins
AwayHeczko0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPetrek leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petrek2Heczko1n = 3Petrek took 2 of 3
S2Petrek1Heczko2n = 3Heczko took 2 of 3
S3Petrek3Heczko0n = 3Petrek took 3 of 3
S4Petrek2Heczko1n = 3Petrek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPetrekHeczkoP − HBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match49.742.7+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrekHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 215 vs 265 / 48550.2%54.6%108 / 215 vs 265 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PetrekPetrek 1.53/Heczko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Petrek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Petrek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 28 · 16:30T. Petrek46141011113D. Heczko351212831
WSep 23 · 15:00T. Petrek591115117153D. Heczko55517911132
WAug 2 · 07:30T. Petrek4491311113D. Heczko381111971
T. Petrek10
WOct 1 · 11:30V. Adamczyk2.2510970T. Petrek1.571211113LOct 1 · 10:00T. Petrek1.8313101110102L. Martinak1.831112612123WSep 28 · 17:30D. Langer1.579970T. Petrek2.251111113WSep 28 · 16:30D. Heczko2.101212831T. Petrek1.67141011113WSep 28 · 15:30T. Petrek1.73119118113A. Walek2.0081161182LSep 28 · 14:30D. Langer1.6711115113T. Petrek2.10751181WSep 28 · 12:58T. Petrek1.53511118113M. Heczko2.3811861192LSep 28 · 12:00R. Skacelik1.9111711113T. Petrek1.80311851WSep 28 · 11:00M. Heczko2.10145781T. Petrek1.67121111113WSep 28 · 10:30T. Petrek1.73118911143D. Oborny2.00811116122
D. Heczko10
LOct 1 · 13:00V. Adamczyk1.67671111113D. Heczko2.1011119552LOct 1 · 11:00L. Martinak2.101111133D. Heczko1.6716110WOct 1 · 10:30D. Heczko2.20981711113V. Adamczyk1.61111115892WOct 1 · 08:59J. Mikula2.50611481D. Heczko1.5011611113WOct 1 · 08:30D. Heczko1.73811711113J. Mikula2.0011811782LOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:00J. Snr1.911211110113D. Heczko1.80103111272WSep 28 · 17:00A. Walek2.1091180D. Heczko1.671113113LSep 28 · 16:30D. Heczko2.101212831T. Petrek1.67141011113LSep 28 · 15:00D. Heczko2.7561111262D. Langer1.40119211113
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