TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Martinak vs David Heczko 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1111161311––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Heczko to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Martinak above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 53 set 3, 13-11 · our read held David Heczko at 55.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Martinak 0–2 David Heczko Lukas Martinak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5855.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Heczko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martinak 1596 vs Heczko 1585
Martinak
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinak 20% vs Heczko 60%
Heczko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinak 40% vs Heczko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinak +1 · Heczko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Heczko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinak form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinak 2.10 / Heczko 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Heczko)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222572
Martinak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 28 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Heczko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 86 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it73% 62 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMartinak0wins
AwayHeczko2wins
Heczko leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricMartinakHeczkoM − HBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match24.533.0−8.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinakHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 283 vs 264 / 48352.7%54.7%149 / 283 vs 264 / 483Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoMartinak 2.10/Heczko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martinak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak269980D. Heczko331111113
LAug 20 · 11:30L. Martinak235990D. Heczko331111113
L. Martinak10
LOct 1 · 12:30L. Martinak1.408990V. Adamczyk2.751111113WOct 1 · 10:00T. Petrek1.8313101110102L. Martinak1.831112612123LSep 28 · 13:00J. Schwan1.611111113L. Martinak2.207770LSep 28 · 12:30L. Martinak1.831385111J. Schwan1.83111111133LSep 28 · 11:00L. Martinak1.7379100J. Simecek2.001111123LSep 28 · 10:00D. Langer1.801111113L. Martinak1.916480WSep 15 · 17:30F. Laburda1.8011771192L. Martinak1.90611119113WSep 15 · 16:30L. Martinak1.7361111113A. Walek2.00116791WSep 15 · 15:00L. Martinak1.73111110113D. Machander2.00851261LSep 15 · 14:00F. Laburda1.831261110183L. Martinak1.831011712162
D. Heczko10
LOct 1 · 12:00T. Petrek1.5351113113D. Heczko2.381141191WOct 1 · 10:30D. Heczko2.20981711113V. Adamczyk1.61111115892WOct 1 · 08:59J. Mikula2.50611481D. Heczko1.5011611113WOct 1 · 08:30D. Heczko1.73811711113J. Mikula2.0011811782LOct 1 · 07:00D. Heczko2.257133101J. Schwan1.57111111123LOct 1 · 06:00J. Snr1.911211110113D. Heczko1.80103111272WSep 28 · 17:00A. Walek2.1091180D. Heczko1.671113113LSep 28 · 16:30D. Heczko2.101212831T. Petrek1.67141011113LSep 28 · 15:00D. Heczko2.7561111262D. Langer1.40119211113WSep 28 · 14:00A. Walek1.9181161182D. Heczko1.80112117113
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