TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Matousch vs Michal Cesak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 5 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117911116116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Cesak to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Michal Cesak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Michal Cesak at 69.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 5–15 Michal Cesak Simon Matousch has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4569.5%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.9pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cesak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Cesak
Wrong
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1404 vs Cesak 1463
Cesak
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 80% vs Cesak 40%
Matousch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 50% vs Cesak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +2 · Cesak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Cesak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesak form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 3.00 / Cesak 1.363
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Cesak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268099
Matousch3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 27 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Cesak1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it74% 37 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch1wins
AwayCesak9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCesak leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatouschn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCesak88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch1Cesak9n = 10Cesak took 9 of 10
S2Matousch4Cesak6n = 10Cesak took 6 of 10
S3Matousch2Cesak8n = 10Cesak took 8 of 10
S4Matousch4Cesak1n = 5Matousch took 4 of 5
S5Matousch0Cesak4n = 4Cesak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschCesakM − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.840.7−4.9per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschCesakBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 334 vs 98 / 17144.3%57.3%148 / 334 vs 98 / 171Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CesakMatousch 3.00/Cesak 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Cesak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 17:20S. Matousch31128110M. Cesak381411133
LSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2578100M. Cesak341111123
WAug 26 · 15:50S. Matousch3631111113M. Cesak30118741
LAug 6 · 15:20S. Matousch4371361162M. Cesak471111113113
LAug 4 · 17:19S. Matousch29101270M. Cesak371214113
LAug 4 · 15:20S. Matousch6211111016142M. Cesak621371214163
LJul 21 · 15:50S. Matousch4011611752M. Cesak47811611113
LJul 9 · 16:20S. Matousch196850M. Cesak331111113
LJul 1 · 16:20S. Matousch4681171192M. Cesak43119111113
LJun 18 · 15:50S. Matousch2791260M. Cesak361114113
S. Matousch10
WOct 9 · 14:20P. Cibik1.57881191S. Matousch2.2511119113WOct 8 · 22:30S. Matousch2.151110117113L. Vich1.6281271162LOct 8 · 21:25S. Matousch2.253101191Z. Vyskocil1.5711125113WOct 8 · 19:55L. Vich1.55128461S. Matousch2.25101111113WOct 8 · 19:25P. Cibik1.5711581182S. Matousch2.25711119113LOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113LOct 5 · 12:50J. Vintr1.83117311143S. Matousch1.83811117122WOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292LOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572
M. Cesak10
WOct 9 · 16:20P. Cibik2.101111761M. Cesak1.6761311113WOct 9 · 14:50M. Cesak1.28511711113M. Kolbusovsky3.5011811792LSep 23 · 17:19M. Cesak1.501198111Z. Dusek2.5021111133LSep 23 · 16:20J. Vintr2.008111411113M. Cesak1.7311716972LSep 23 · 15:50A. Brandtl Jr1.57114911113M. Cesak2.2591111782WSep 23 · 14:50M. Cesak1.531111113Z. Dusek2.383430WSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110WSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123LSep 9 · 15:50P. Cibik2.10115811113M. Cesak1.6781111662LSep 9 · 14:50M. Cesak2.00129781Z. Dusek1.73101111113
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