TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Josef Vintr vs Simon Matousch 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187113111171412
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Matousch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Vintr above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 95 set 5, 14-12 · our read held Simon Matousch at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Josef Vintr 5–8 Simon Matousch Josef Vintr has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Matousch
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Matousch
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vintr 1462 vs Matousch 1367
Vintr
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vintr 100% vs Matousch 20%
Vintr
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vintr 60% vs Matousch 40%
Vintr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vintr +5 · Matousch +1
Vintr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Matousch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVintr 1.833 / Matousch 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matousch)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13246176
Vintr1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Matousch1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVintr4wins
AwayMatousch6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMatousch leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVintr60%3 of 5
AwayMatousch80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vintr5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S2Vintr3Matousch7n = 10Matousch took 7 of 10
S3Vintr5Matousch5n = 10split evenly
S4Vintr3Matousch3n = 6split evenly
S5Vintr2Matousch3n = 5Matousch took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVintrMatouschV − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.140.5−1.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVintrMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 86 vs 148 / 33253.5%44.6%46 / 86 vs 148 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatouschVintr 1.83/Matousch 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matousch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vintr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 13:30J. Vintr25510100S. Matousch351112123
LSep 21 · 11:20J. Vintr491110101172S. Matousch48612127113
LSep 3 · 11:20J. Vintr24410100S. Matousch351112123
WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr4591111143S. Matousch341138121
WAug 26 · 17:50J. Vintr541112119113S. Matousch5081491182
LAug 26 · 14:20J. Vintr196670S. Matousch331111113
LAug 25 · 12:20J. Vintr47511111192S. Matousch50111378113
LAug 18 · 17:29J. Vintr481110116102S. Matousch50812711123
WAug 18 · 16:20J. Vintr45111193113S. Matousch4598111162
WAug 11 · 08:25J. Vintr351111133S. Matousch2577110
J. Vintr10
WOct 5 · 11:20M. Kolbusovsky3.00541181J. Vintr1.3611113113WOct 5 · 10:50O. Sebek2.751171181J. Vintr1.4013114113WSep 23 · 17:50A. Brandtl Jr1.459880J. Vintr2.601111113WSep 23 · 16:20J. Vintr2.008111411113M. Cesak1.7311716972WSep 23 · 15:20J. Vintr1.80913811113Z. Dusek1.91111111592LSep 23 · 14:20J. Vintr2.067611101A. Brandtl Jr1.5511119123LSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100WSep 21 · 12:50J. Vintr2.2512155113T. Cerveny Jr1.5710131181LSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 21 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3.00119115113J. Vintr1.3671181142
S. Matousch10
LOct 5 · 13:35S. Matousch1.8011891192M. Kolbusovsky1.90811114113WOct 5 · 11:50S. Matousch1.40611911113O. Sebek2.7511611582LOct 5 · 10:20M. Kolbusovsky2.381111410113S. Matousch1.5357111292LOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572LOct 2 · 20:20S. Matousch2.207830P. Cibik1.611111113LOct 2 · 19:20S. Matousch1.7311109121Z. Vyskocil2.0071211143LOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113WSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133WSep 21 · 13:30S. Matousch1.831112123J. Vintr1.83510100WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172
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