TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Heinzl vs Lukas Svoboda 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121012114115811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Heinzl at 60.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 23–14 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4360.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1745 vs Svoboda 1666
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 80% vs Svoboda 40%
Heinzl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 60% vs Svoboda 40%
Heinzl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +3 · Svoboda +1
Heinzl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Heinzl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.571 / Svoboda 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Heinzl)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266180
Heinzl1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 146 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it80% 109 of 137
Svoboda2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 24 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back25% 8 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl8wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl85.7%6 of 7
AwaySvoboda33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl7Svoboda3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S2Heinzl5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly
S3Heinzl6Svoboda4n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S4Heinzl5Svoboda4n = 9Heinzl took 5 of 9
S5Heinzl3Svoboda0n = 3Heinzl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlSvobodaH − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.4+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 634 vs 67 / 13554.3%49.6%344 / 634 vs 67 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.57/Svoboda 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 23 · 13:04L. Heinzl29114861L. Svoboda3961111113
WJun 23 · 11:00L. Heinzl527121111113L. Svoboda4411143792
WAug 30 · 08:15L. Heinzl3611311113L. Svoboda37911891
WAug 30 · 05:15L. Heinzl51159115113L. Svoboda53131191192
LAug 26 · 16:30L. Heinzl361012861L. Svoboda44121011113
WAug 26 · 13:45L. Heinzl3851111113L. Svoboda32119841
WAug 23 · 17:45L. Heinzl49111179113L. Svoboda4468111182
WAug 14 · 12:20L. Heinzl3711114113L. Svoboda29491151
WAug 14 · 10:15L. Heinzl4111811113L. Svoboda30411961
WAug 11 · 05:45L. Heinzl331111113L. Svoboda226790
L. Heinzl10
WOct 9 · 18:15J. Dolezal2.7575100L. Heinzl1.401111123WOct 9 · 17:45D. Gasparovic1.8061180L. Heinzl1.911113113WOct 7 · 16:19L. Dobias1.807514101L. Heinzl1.91111112123LOct 7 · 15:15S. Rejent2.50712611113L. Heinzl1.50111011592WOct 7 · 14:45L. Heinzl2.101113123L. Dobias1.67611100LOct 7 · 13:45L. Heinzl1.911112351M. Zelinka1.8091411113WOct 4 · 12:55R. Pisa2.109450L. Heinzl1.671111113LOct 4 · 11:45L. Heinzl1.73510111192R. Pisa2.00111277113WOct 4 · 10:15O. Kaderabek2.50410141192L. Heinzl1.501112125113LOct 4 · 09:45M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Heinzl1.448780
L. Svoboda10
WOct 9 · 17:15J. Dolezal1.9154111182L. Svoboda1.80111175113LSep 27 · 16:30S. Rejent2.02131111113L. Svoboda1.70159461LSep 27 · 15:30L. Svoboda1.7311113962M. Kovarik2.00891111113LSep 27 · 14:30L. Svoboda1.4012551192O. Mezera2.751011116113WSep 27 · 13:30L. Svoboda1.7311115163S. Rejent2.007711141LSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113WSep 21 · 07:45V. Burylov1.7378150L. Svoboda2.001111173LSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460WSep 20 · 16:23V. Burylov1.617850L. Svoboda2.201111113
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