TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Lukas Heinzl 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411611––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:06 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Lukas Heinzl at 54.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 29–50 Lukas Heinzl Radovan Pisa has won 29 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0654.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-50 in 79
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 21 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1685 vs Heinzl 1748
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 40% vs Heinzl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 60% vs Heinzl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -2 · Heinzl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Heinzl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.00 / Heinzl 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Heinzl)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271163
Pisa2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 87 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back30% 30 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 56
Heinzl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 147 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it96% 74 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa3wins
AwayHeinzl7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa33.3%1 of 3
AwayHeinzl71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa3Heinzl7n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S2Pisa3Heinzl7n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S3Pisa3Heinzl7n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S4Pisa1Heinzl5n = 6Heinzl took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaHeinzlP − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.541.0−6.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 795 vs 347 / 64048.4%54.2%385 / 795 vs 347 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlPisa 2.00/Heinzl 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 08:13R. Pisa2710890L. Heinzl341211113
LOct 10 · 07:15R. Pisa177460L. Heinzl331111113
LOct 4 · 12:55R. Pisa189450L. Heinzl331111113
WOct 4 · 11:45R. Pisa48111277113L. Heinzl46510111192
LAug 31 · 08:23R. Pisa418101671L. Heinzl48111214113
WAug 31 · 06:15R. Pisa4481411113L. Heinzl401112981
WAug 29 · 10:45R. Pisa52714119113L. Heinzl52111291192
LAug 28 · 06:00R. Pisa341112471L. Heinzl4481411113
LJul 24 · 08:48R. Pisa2381050L. Heinzl341112113
LJul 24 · 07:45R. Pisa411198131L. Heinzl4691111153
R. Pisa10
LOct 10 · 08:13L. Heinzl1.571211113R. Pisa2.2510890LOct 10 · 06:15R. Pisa2.20711671M. Zelinka1.6111511113LOct 10 · 05:15R. Pisa1.834540L. Rulc1.831111113WOct 9 · 12:20L. Veigl1.61116115122R. Pisa2.20811711143WOct 9 · 11:15R. Pisa2.1011115113L. Veigl1.67691181LOct 9 · 10:15R. Pisa1.539780J. Dolezal2.381111113WOct 9 · 09:15R. Pisa1.831118113T. Liska1.8391680WOct 8 · 12:44R. Pisa2.001111113L. Adam1.735980LOct 8 · 11:45L. Adam1.6731113123R. Pisa2.1011311101WOct 8 · 10:45A. Radkovsky2.2511691192R. Pisa1.57511116113
L. Heinzl10
WOct 10 · 08:13L. Heinzl1.571211113R. Pisa2.2510890LOct 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.5311871192L. Rulc2.38911116113LOct 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.911111991M. Zelinka1.8061311113WOct 9 · 20:53L. Svoboda2.257840L. Heinzl1.571111113LOct 9 · 19:45L. Heinzl1.571010111182L. Svoboda2.25121245113WOct 9 · 18:15J. Dolezal2.7575100L. Heinzl1.401111123WOct 9 · 17:45D. Gasparovic1.8061180L. Heinzl1.911113113WOct 7 · 16:19L. Dobias1.807514101L. Heinzl1.91111112123LOct 7 · 15:15S. Rejent2.50712611113L. Heinzl1.50111011592WOct 7 · 14:45L. Heinzl2.101113123L. Dobias1.67611100
Upcoming Matches
R. Pisa
L. Heinzl
Nothing scheduled
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