TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Tomas Liska 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191816118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 73 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 63–50 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 50 of their 113 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0254.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Liska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
63-50 in 113
Pisa
Correct
gap of 13 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1721 vs Liska 1632
Pisa
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 80% vs Liska 20%
Pisa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 60% vs Liska 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa +1 · Liska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 1.833 / Liska 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pisa)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13266031
Pisa1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Liska1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa4wins
AwayLiska6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLiska leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa66.7%4 of 6
AwayLiska100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa6Liska4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Pisa6Liska4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S3Pisa2Liska8n = 10Liska took 8 of 10
S4Pisa5Liska4n = 9Pisa took 5 of 9
S5Pisa2Liska4n = 6Liska took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaLiskaP − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.241.6+2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 795 vs 402 / 86648.6%46.4%386 / 795 vs 402 / 866Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaPisa 1.83/Liska 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa4211119113T. Liska20331131
WSep 27 · 20:14R. Pisa43111110113T. Liska25631241
LSep 27 · 18:45R. Pisa53813711142T. Liska531111114163
LSep 25 · 10:15R. Pisa4871191292T. Liska471141110113
LSep 8 · 10:30R. Pisa4697111182T. Liska45111184113
LSep 3 · 19:45R. Pisa257990T. Liska331111113
LAug 30 · 07:15R. Pisa38129981T. Liska43101111113
WAug 13 · 07:45R. Pisa48111259113T. Liska49810111192
LAug 12 · 05:45R. Pisa4111113972T. Liska48961111113
WAug 8 · 20:13R. Pisa5811101113133T. Liska53712815112
R. Pisa10
LOct 9 · 10:15R. Pisa1.539780J. Dolezal2.381111113WOct 8 · 12:44R. Pisa2.001111113L. Adam1.735980LOct 8 · 11:45L. Adam1.6731113123R. Pisa2.1011311101WOct 8 · 10:45A. Radkovsky2.2511691192R. Pisa1.57511116113WOct 8 · 09:15M. Stibor1.83731171R. Pisa1.8311117113WOct 6 · 08:19R. Pisa2.3871311123A. Snr1.5311115101LOct 6 · 07:15A. Snr1.5711912113R. Pisa2.256111071WOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131WOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350LOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113
T. Liska10
WOct 7 · 08:29T. Liska2.101171611113M. Kovarik1.6781118492LOct 7 · 08:00T. Liska2.20211681L. Adam1.6111311113LOct 7 · 06:30M. Kovarik1.7361211113T. Liska2.001110761LOct 7 · 06:00M. Ullman1.83811113113T. Liska1.8311581162LOct 6 · 16:59J. Senk2.631111133T. Liska1.4487110WOct 6 · 15:30T. Liska1.5711116113P. Semrad2.25481141WOct 6 · 14:30T. Liska1.83131112113S. Rejent1.831581051WOct 6 · 13:30T. Liska1.5391311193J. Senk2.3811115171LOct 6 · 08:48T. Liska2.1012791292M. Makara1.6710111110113LOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131
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