TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Kovarik vs Tomas Liska 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111210117116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Kovarik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Matej Kovarik at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 10–8 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovarik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Kovarik
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1663 vs Liska 1629
Kovarik
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 60% vs Liska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 60% vs Liska 40%
Kovarik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik -1 · Liska -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovarik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 1.727 / Liska 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovarik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255559
Kovarik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 11 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Liska2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 86 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovarik6wins
AwayLiska4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovarik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovarik75%3 of 4
AwayLiska50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovarik4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S2Kovarik6Liska4n = 10Kovarik took 6 of 10
S3Kovarik5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovarik4Liska2n = 6Kovarik took 4 of 6
S5Kovarik2Liska1n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovarikLiskaK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.334.4+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 92 vs 403 / 87052.2%46.3%48 / 92 vs 403 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovarikKovarik 1.73/Liska 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovarik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:30M. Kovarik4061211113T. Liska341110761
WAug 5 · 08:13M. Kovarik4511119143T. Liska366711121
WAug 5 · 05:15M. Kovarik331111113T. Liska151680
WJul 3 · 12:00M. Kovarik351111133T. Liska2256110
LJun 3 · 05:45M. Kovarik229670T. Liska331111113
LMay 18 · 06:45M. Kovarik228680T. Liska331111113
WMay 1 · 08:13M. Kovarik48811711113T. Liska4211411882
LMay 1 · 05:45M. Kovarik36911971T. Liska4111811113
WMar 25 · 06:45M. Kovarik43191111113T. Liska4011115582
LMar 18 · 07:45M. Kovarik3911612552T. Liska485111011113
M. Kovarik10
WOct 7 · 07:30M. Kovarik1.7312611113M. Ullman2.001011971LOct 7 · 05:30M. Kovarik2.387650L. Adam1.531111113WSep 27 · 17:00O. Mezera1.85811791M. Kovarik1.8511911113WSep 27 · 15:30L. Svoboda1.7311113962M. Kovarik2.00891111113WSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102LSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682LSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113
T. Liska10
LOct 7 · 06:00M. Ullman1.83811113113T. Liska1.8311581162LOct 6 · 16:59J. Senk2.631111133T. Liska1.4487110WOct 6 · 15:30T. Liska1.5711116113P. Semrad2.25481141WOct 6 · 14:30T. Liska1.83131112113S. Rejent1.831581051WOct 6 · 13:30T. Liska1.5391311193J. Senk2.3811115171LOct 6 · 08:48T. Liska2.1012791292M. Makara1.6710111110113WOct 6 · 07:45M. Makara1.739780T. Liska2.001111113LOct 6 · 06:45R. Pisa1.8311119113T. Liska1.83331131LOct 6 · 05:15A. Snr1.911191110113T. Liska1.8011141252LOct 5 · 12:44T. Liska2.258121371O. Kaderabek1.57111015113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kovarik
Nothing scheduled
T. Liska
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