TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Mezera vs Matej Kovarik 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119711911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Matej Kovarik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11
77 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 2–1 Matej Kovarik Matej Kovarik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mezera beat Kovarik 2-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovarik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovarik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 1.85 / Kovarik 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovarik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13207454
Mezera1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kovarik1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMezera2wins
AwayKovarik1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMezera leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera1Kovarik2n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S2Mezera1Kovarik2n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
S3Mezera2Kovarik1n = 3Mezera took 2 of 3
S4Mezera2Kovarik1n = 3Mezera took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMezeraKovarikM − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.039.3−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraKovarikBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 804 vs 47 / 9348.9%50.5%393 / 804 vs 47 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovarikMezera 1.85/Kovarik 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovarik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 06:15O. Mezera44831111113M. Kovarik4311117772
LDec 19 · 07:30O. Mezera32119751M. Kovarik4181111113
WSep 19 · 11:15O. Mezera3851111113M. Kovarik34118871
O. Mezera10
WSep 27 · 16:00O. Mezera3.251313113S. Rejent1.33111190WSep 27 · 14:30L. Svoboda1.4012551192O. Mezera2.751011116113WSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102WSep 24 · 16:24O. Mezera2.2011911123M. Vyskocil1.617113101LSep 24 · 15:15M. Vyskocil1.57111111113O. Mezera2.25713691LSep 24 · 14:45O. Mezera2.25911101142L. Veigl1.57119125113LSep 24 · 13:45O. Mezera2.256111191M. Kocvara1.5711136113LSep 23 · 16:43S. Rejent1.53111111123O. Mezera2.387134101WSep 23 · 15:15O. Mezera3.75611811153L. Rulc1.25118118132WSep 23 · 14:15O. Mezera2.10111211143M. Myler1.679147121
M. Kovarik10
WSep 27 · 15:30L. Svoboda1.7311113962M. Kovarik2.00891111113WSep 27 · 15:00M. Kovarik2.101211113S. Rejent1.6710790LSep 27 · 14:00M. Kovarik1.611177101O. Mezera2.2071111102LSep 27 · 08:49L. Heinzl1.571011115113M. Kovarik2.2512791192WSep 27 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.381111123M. Zelinka1.5395100WSep 27 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.38813611113L. Heinzl1.53111111682LSep 27 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.73411591M. Kocvara2.0011611113WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.