TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Illia Fokin vs Vasil Salivonchyk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511117119––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 67.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 1–2 Vasil Salivonchyk Illia Fokin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4867.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Salivonchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1023 vs Salivonchyk 1140
Salivonchyk
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 60% vs Salivonchyk 20%
Fokin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 60% vs Salivonchyk 20%
Fokin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -1 · Salivonchyk -4
Salivonchyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Salivonchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 2.75 / Salivonchyk 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Salivonchyk)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265921
Fokin2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Salivonchyk1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 78 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it84% 37 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it69% 59 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeFokin1wins
AwaySalivonchyk2wins
Salivonchyk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin1Salivonchyk2n = 3Salivonchyk took 2 of 3
S2Fokin2Salivonchyk1n = 3Fokin took 2 of 3
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricFokinSalivonchykF − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match31.040.0−9.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 303 vs 315 / 59751.5%52.8%156 / 303 vs 315 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykFokin 2.75/Salivonchyk 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 20 · 13:25I. Fokin207760V. Salivonchyk331111113
LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin4210128121V. Salivonchyk47121011143
I. Fokin10
LOct 9 · 12:55M. Treschetka1.40121147133I. Fokin2.751081111112WOct 2 · 11:25I. Fokin1.2011158113O. Bolnyh4.339131141WOct 2 · 09:25B. Pyrtyk2.7512119101I. Fokin1.4014911123LOct 2 · 07:25O. Martynenko2.20111110113I. Fokin1.61981231WOct 2 · 06:25I. Fokin1.281111133Y. Shcherbak3.5078110WOct 2 · 05:25P. Melnichuk3.40101151162I. Fokin1.30123115113LOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261LOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113
V. Salivonchyk10
LOct 9 · 11:55H. Oliynyk1.5711115113V. Salivonchyk2.25691151LOct 5 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk2.1027120H. Oliynyk1.671111143LOct 5 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk1.5751140O. Maslovskyi2.251113113LOct 5 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk3.009560O. Melnik1.361111113WOct 5 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk2.101111113O. Maksymkiv1.672560WOct 5 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk1.83311811113V. Vasyliev1.8311611562LOct 4 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk1.5311116462O. Maslovskyi2.38761111113LOct 4 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk1.91410141162M. Dunas1.801112129113LOct 4 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk3.5013791132O. Melnik1.281111116113LOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk3.25591291O. Maksymkiv1.33111110113
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