TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasil Salivonchyk vs Oleh Maksymkiv 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112115116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:50 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 46 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 57.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 20–37 Oleh Maksymkiv Vasil Salivonchyk has won 20 of their 57 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Maksymkiv beat Salivonchyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5057.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-37 in 57
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 17 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1175 vs Maksymkiv 1206
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 20% vs Maksymkiv 40%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 30% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk +1 · Maksymkiv -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 2.10 / Maksymkiv 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245059
Salivonchyk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 34 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Maksymkiv1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 124 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it90% 62 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk4wins
AwayMaksymkiv6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchyk50%3 of 6
AwayMaksymkiv75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk6Maksymkiv4n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S2Salivonchyk4Maksymkiv6n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S3Salivonchyk6Maksymkiv4n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S4Salivonchyk4Maksymkiv5n = 9Maksymkiv took 5 of 9
S5Salivonchyk1Maksymkiv3n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalivonchykMaksymkivS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.140.9+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 596 vs 404 / 77653.2%52.1%317 / 596 vs 404 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivSalivonchyk 2.10/Maksymkiv 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk35591291O. Maksymkiv43111110113
LOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk38991191O. Maksymkiv4211119113
LSep 20 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk30741181O. Maksymkiv4211119113
WSep 7 · 10:55V. Salivonchyk4211911113O. Maksymkiv30711481
LSep 6 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk5311196892O. Maksymkiv577171111113
WAug 31 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk53911811143O. Maksymkiv40115111122
LAug 30 · 16:55V. Salivonchyk51111198122O. Maksymkiv48481111143
LAug 23 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk651116102082O. Maksymkiv656181218113
WAug 17 · 06:25V. Salivonchyk331111113O. Maksymkiv135620
WAug 10 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk4111811113O. Maksymkiv29911541
V. Salivonchyk10
WOct 5 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk1.83311811113V. Vasyliev1.8311611562LOct 4 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk1.5311116462O. Maslovskyi2.38761111113LOct 4 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk1.91410141162M. Dunas1.801112129113LOct 4 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk3.5013791132O. Melnik1.281111116113LOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk3.25591291O. Maksymkiv1.33111110113LOct 4 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk1.731011461V. Vasyliev2.0012811113WOct 1 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.20121070V. Salivonchyk1.611412113LOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113LOct 1 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk1.61114371M. Dunas2.2081111113WOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 5 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.831111113O. Maksymkiv1.838330LOct 4 · 18:55O. Melnik1.441111113O. Maksymkiv2.636890WOct 4 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5011129113V. Vasyliev2.506101181LOct 4 · 15:25M. Dunas2.381491112113O. Maksymkiv1.53161181012WOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk3.25591291O. Maksymkiv1.33111110113LOct 4 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi5.50851113113O. Maksymkiv1.13111181132WOct 2 · 18:55M. Dunas2.5011115942O. Maksymkiv1.50671111113LOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113LOct 2 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.2515111012123O. Maksymkiv1.331331214102WOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113
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