TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Pyrtyk vs Illia Fokin 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141199111012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Pyrtyk above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 88 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Illia Fokin at 70.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Pyrtyk 4–9 Illia Fokin Bohdan Pyrtyk has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1970.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Fokin
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrtyk 816 vs Fokin 1028
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 212 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrtyk 40% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrtyk 40% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrtyk -2 · Fokin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrtyk 2.75 / Fokin 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Fokin)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228954
Pyrtyk2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Fokin1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 63 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrtyk3wins
AwayFokin7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrtyk40%2 of 5
AwayFokin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrtyk5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S2Pyrtyk4Fokin6n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S3Pyrtyk4Fokin6n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S4Pyrtyk3Fokin5n = 8Fokin took 5 of 8
S5Pyrtyk2Fokin3n = 5Fokin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrtykFokinP − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.845.8−5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrtykFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 316 vs 155 / 30145.6%51.5%144 / 316 vs 155 / 301Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinPyrtyk 2.75/Fokin 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 09:25B. Pyrtyk4212119101I. Fokin4614911123
LAug 15 · 07:55B. Pyrtyk27610110I. Fokin361112133
LJun 11 · 12:25B. Pyrtyk31651191I. Fokin4111118113
LMay 9 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk371210781I. Fokin44101211113
WApr 30 · 08:25B. Pyrtyk57691615113I. Fokin581111141392
LApr 23 · 08:25B. Pyrtyk4411681362I. Fokin528111111113
WApr 15 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk41111135113I. Fokin4498111152
LApr 9 · 05:55B. Pyrtyk47511111282I. Fokin541191310113
LMar 19 · 10:55B. Pyrtyk4611617842I. Fokin546111511113
WMar 5 · 09:25B. Pyrtyk361213113I. Fokin29101180
B. Pyrtyk10
WOct 2 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.44811861B. Pyrtyk2.6311611113LOct 2 · 08:25B. Pyrtyk2.3811581572Y. Shcherbak1.538111113113LOct 2 · 06:55B. Pyrtyk2.501711031P. Melnichuk1.5019911113WOct 2 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.3611117123O. Bolnyh3.009911101WSep 22 · 11:25V. Sydorchuk2.006840B. Pyrtyk1.731111113LSep 22 · 09:55B. Pyrtyk2.20107100Y. Shcherbak1.611211123LSep 22 · 07:55O. Martynenko1.44131310113B. Pyrtyk2.6311111291WSep 22 · 05:55M. Senyk5.001014751B. Pyrtyk1.14121211113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Skoropad3.259040B. Pyrtyk1.331111113LSep 19 · 10:25P. Chyzh1.401111113B. Pyrtyk2.754580
I. Fokin10
LOct 2 · 07:25O. Martynenko2.20111110113I. Fokin1.61981231WOct 2 · 06:25I. Fokin1.281111133Y. Shcherbak3.5078110WOct 2 · 05:25P. Melnichuk3.40101151162I. Fokin1.30123115113LOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261LOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113WOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931WSep 24 · 09:55M. Treschetka1.30911101172I. Fokin3.40111127113
Upcoming Matches
B. Pyrtyk
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I. Fokin
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