TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Alexander Mikuska 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012118116411118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlexander Mikuska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Alexander Mikuska below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Alexander Mikuska at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 1–1 Alexander Mikuska Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:5654.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mikuska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1542 vs Mikuska 1525
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Mikuska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Mikuska 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +1 · Mikuska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mikuska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.10 / Mikuska 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mikuska)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264631
Svoboda2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Mikuska1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 45 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayMikuska1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSvobodaMikuskaS − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match49.047.5+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaMikuskaBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 409 vs 128 / 24253.8%52.9%220 / 409 vs 128 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MikuskaSvoboda 2.10/Mikuska 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mikuska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 7 · 01:30A. Svoboda47961111102A. Mikuska48111177123
WSep 13 · 00:00A. Svoboda511111117113A. Mikuska4713871182
A. Svoboda10
WOct 10 · 02:58A. Svoboda2.001011614123A. Mikuska1.731261112102WOct 10 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.20117913113T. Dousa1.61711111142LOct 10 · 00:00J. Dedek1.531111113A. Svoboda2.388750LOct 9 · 22:30K. Darin1.5011117113A. Svoboda2.50691151WOct 9 · 21:30J. Dedek1.8011850A. Svoboda1.901311113WOct 9 · 20:00K. Novak1.578270A. Svoboda2.251111113LOct 9 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk1.44118114113A. Svoboda2.6361181152WOct 9 · 18:30A. Svoboda3.00911411113J. Dedek1.3611611982LOct 8 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.48119611142M. Stefek2.45511115163WOct 8 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.44911811113M. Stefek2.6311911692
A. Mikuska10
LOct 10 · 02:58A. Svoboda2.001011614123A. Mikuska1.731261112102LOct 10 · 00:30A. Mikuska1.57137120K. Darin2.251511143WOct 9 · 23:00A. Mikuska2.2011116133J. Dedek1.617211111LOct 9 · 22:00T. Dousa2.10129811113A. Mikuska1.67101111732WOct 7 · 03:30M. Kolar2.503550A. Mikuska1.501111113WOct 7 · 02:30A. Mikuska2.25134116113V. Postelt1.57111171192WOct 7 · 01:30A. Svoboda2.10961111102A. Mikuska1.67111177123WOct 7 · 00:00A. Mikuska1.501110711113M. Kolar2.5081211372LOct 6 · 23:00F. Briza2.501111113A. Mikuska1.505660LSep 27 · 02:59J. Plachy1.91149911113A. Mikuska1.80121111532
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