TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Antoni Witkowski vs Damian Wederlich 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111113––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDamian Wederlich to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAntoni Witkowski above · Damian Wederlich below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 60 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Damian Wederlich at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Antoni Witkowski 13–16 Damian Wederlich Antoni Witkowski has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Wederlich beat Witkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4154.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wederlich
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Wederlich
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1851 vs Wederlich 1989
Wederlich
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 20% vs Wederlich 80%
Wederlich
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 20% vs Wederlich 80%
Wederlich
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski -1 · Wederlich +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wederlich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wederlich form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.833 / Wederlich 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wederlich)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13264245
Witkowski1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Wederlich1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWitkowski3wins
AwayWederlich7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski75%3 of 4
AwayWederlich100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski4Wederlich6n = 10Wederlich took 6 of 10
S2Witkowski5Wederlich5n = 10split evenly
S3Witkowski5Wederlich5n = 10split evenly
S4Witkowski1Wederlich5n = 6Wederlich took 5 of 6
S5Witkowski1Wederlich3n = 4Wederlich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWitkowskiWederlichWitkowski − WederlichBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.138.5−2.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiWederlichBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 394 vs 94 / 15957.6%59.1%227 / 394 vs 94 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WederlichWitkowski 1.83/Wederlich 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wederlich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wederlich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 06:30A. Witkowski3931111952D. Wederlich46118511113
LJul 10 · 12:30A. Witkowski26511281D. Wederlich4211911113
WJul 10 · 03:00A. Witkowski491151210113D. Wederlich47911101252
WJun 5 · 11:10A. Witkowski331111113D. Wederlich155550
LJun 5 · 05:40A. Witkowski248880D. Wederlich331111113
LJun 4 · 15:35A. Witkowski2679100D. Wederlich341111123
LJun 4 · 07:40A. Witkowski508111110102D. Wederlich45116412123
LMay 16 · 11:10A. Witkowski249870D. Wederlich331111113
LMay 16 · 06:40A. Witkowski44111161242D. Wederlich51691114113
WMay 10 · 06:15A. Witkowski4611811163D. Wederlich395119141
A. Witkowski10
LOct 9 · 14:10A. Witkowski1.731141061M. Jadczyk2.0091112113WOct 9 · 12:55A. Witkowski1.611111113J. Zandecki2.209360LOct 9 · 11:15A. Witkowski2.2031111872P. David1.61119911113LOct 9 · 10:00A. Witkowski1.671712741D. Michna2.10151411113LOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski1.505370D. Michna2.501111113LOct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00118511113A. Witkowski1.7331111952LOct 9 · 05:40P. David1.531111113A. Witkowski2.388880LOct 9 · 04:55A. Witkowski1.5784111182J. Zandecki2.25111198113LOct 9 · 03:45A. Witkowski2.108930M. Jadczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 07:45A. Witkowski1.5711511113S. Dosz2.25911961
D. Wederlich10
WOct 9 · 14:35D. Wederlich1.671111113D. Michna2.104990WOct 9 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.8311114862D. Wederlich1.83991111113LOct 9 · 12:05J. Zandecki1.67114411113D. Wederlich2.1081111282WOct 9 · 10:25P. David1.577119111D. Wederlich2.2511811133WOct 9 · 07:45D. Wederlich1.8011115113M. Jadczyk1.91941181WOct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00118511113A. Witkowski1.7331111952LOct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.73116591D. Michna2.0081111113WOct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61101111792D. Wederlich2.20129511113WOct 9 · 03:25D. Wederlich2.10111310113J. Zandecki1.678111261WOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113
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