TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Denys Shcherbak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311511811611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:24 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 67.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 71–33 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 33 of their 104 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2467.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
71-33 in 104
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 38 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1798 vs Shcherbak 1793
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 70% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +1 · Shcherbak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.40 / Shcherbak 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Pesternikov)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261519
Pesternikov1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 227 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it95% 126 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it82% 181 of 220
Shcherbak2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 94 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov8wins
AwayShcherbak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov83.3%5 of 6
AwayShcherbak25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov6Shcherbak4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S2Pesternikov6Shcherbak4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S3Pesternikov6Shcherbak4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S4Pesternikov6Shcherbak3n = 9Pesternikov took 6 of 9
S5Pesternikov3Shcherbak1n = 4Pesternikov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovShcherbakP − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.936.3+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime595 / 1097 vs 376 / 72254.2%52.1%595 / 1097 vs 376 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.40/Shcherbak 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 09:55D. Pesternikov3510114101D. Shcherbak4412911123
WOct 5 · 16:25D. Pesternikov47771111113D. Shcherbak3811118442
WOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov4111811113D. Shcherbak29711831
WOct 2 · 13:35D. Pesternikov43511115113D. Shcherbak4111481172
WOct 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov4011117113D. Shcherbak30871141
WSep 26 · 07:35D. Pesternikov4011711113D. Shcherbak32811761
WSep 25 · 18:35D. Pesternikov331111113D. Shcherbak227960
LSep 22 · 08:05D. Pesternikov4913691382D. Shcherbak5511111111113
WSep 21 · 16:35D. Pesternikov4181111113D. Shcherbak28115661
WSep 17 · 21:00D. Pesternikov50111176153D. Shcherbak44541111132
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 9 · 00:30O. Hura7.008413111D. Pesternikov1.08111111133WOct 8 · 22:30I. Romaniak2.639990D. Pesternikov1.441111113LOct 8 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.53911691I. Kozachuk2.3811911113WOct 6 · 10:55A. Zeniuk2.20612117122D. Pesternikov1.611110811143LOct 6 · 09:55D. Shcherbak3.0012911123D. Pesternikov1.3610114101WOct 6 · 08:25I. Kozachuk2.256660D. Pesternikov1.571111113WOct 6 · 06:25O. Napirko6.0081020D. Pesternikov1.111112113WOct 6 · 04:25I. Romaniak2.389111081D. Pesternikov1.5311612113WOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652WOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113
D. Shcherbak10
LOct 8 · 21:30O. Hura3.40119611113D. Shcherbak1.3091111952WOct 8 · 20:30I. Romaniak2.503111061D. Shcherbak1.5011412113WOct 6 · 11:25O. Napirko4.33811991D. Shcherbak1.2011811113WOct 6 · 09:55D. Shcherbak3.0012911123D. Pesternikov1.3610114101LOct 6 · 07:55A. Zeniuk1.6712811113D. Shcherbak2.101011851WOct 6 · 05:55I. Romaniak2.50771191D. Shcherbak1.5011119113WOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113WOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133
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