TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Serhii Rak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1148118111113––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:40 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 77 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Serhii Rak at 57.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 51–61 Serhii Rak Denys Shcherbak has won 51 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4057.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
51-61 in 112
Rak
Correct
gap of 10 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1782 vs Rak 1895
Rak
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Rak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +2 · Rak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 2.10 / Rak 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rak)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245486
Shcherbak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 78
Rak1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 265 of 401
Up 2–0, closes it94% 131 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it83% 189 of 229
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak6wins
AwayRak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak80%4 of 5
AwayRak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak6Rak4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S3Shcherbak6Rak4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Rak5n = 8Rak took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakRakS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.633.8+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakRakBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 713 vs 550 / 98551.9%55.8%370 / 713 vs 550 / 985Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RakShcherbak 2.10/Rak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak381188111S. Rak3941111133
WOct 3 · 06:35D. Shcherbak44411126113S. Rak42113101172
LOct 2 · 15:35D. Shcherbak30411781S. Rak4111811113
WOct 1 · 23:00D. Shcherbak4411814113S. Rak364111291
LSep 28 · 18:35D. Shcherbak24311371S. Rak4011711113
WSep 26 · 05:35D. Shcherbak331111113S. Rak187830
WSep 24 · 21:30D. Shcherbak4491111133S. Rak291143111
LSep 22 · 11:35D. Shcherbak381091181S. Rak4012116113
WSep 21 · 15:05D. Shcherbak341111123S. Rak1945100
D. Shcherbak10
WOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831WOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.67115771D. Shcherbak2.1081111113WOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113LOct 3 · 04:35Y. Kravets2.5061111113D. Shcherbak1.50118961LOct 2 · 19:05Y. Kravets2.631111113D. Shcherbak1.448790WOct 2 · 17:35D. Shcherbak2.75111111113D. Zeniuk1.40713991LOct 2 · 15:35S. Rak1.6711811113D. Shcherbak2.10411781
S. Rak10
WOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790WOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113WOct 3 · 07:35Y. Kravets2.75591131S. Rak1.4011118113LOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113WOct 3 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111191092S. Rak2.63161112113WOct 2 · 18:35S. Rak2.75111115113D. Zeniuk1.409131391WOct 2 · 16:35D. Pesternikov1.4411961182S. Rak2.63611116113WOct 2 · 15:35S. Rak1.6711811113D. Shcherbak2.10411781
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