TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Rak vs Oleh Napirko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161171412––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:42 and never touched: 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 61 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Serhii Rak at 88.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 9–0 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 0 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4288.6%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 1.4pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-0 in 9
Rak
Correct
gap of 9 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1881 vs Napirko 1576
Rak
Correct
both rated, 305 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Napirko 20%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 80% vs Napirko 20%
Rak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -1 · Napirko -3
Napirko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.111 / Napirko 6.00
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Rak)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245423
Rak1.11
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 265 of 401
Up 2–0, closes it94% 131 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it83% 189 of 229
Napirko6.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 60 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRak9wins
AwayNapirko0wins
1 of 9 to a deciderRak leads 9–0, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%7 of 7
AwayNapirkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak7Napirko2n = 9Rak took 7 of 9
S2Rak8Napirko1n = 9Rak took 8 of 9
S3Rak6Napirko1n = 7Rak took 6 of 7
S4Rak3Napirko1n = 4Rak took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home556%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricRakNapirkoR − NBasisWins90+9in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match37.428.1+9.3per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime548 / 983 vs 418 / 84055.8%49.8%548 / 983 vs 418 / 840Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.11/Napirko 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak331111113O. Napirko204790
WSep 28 · 13:05S. Rak331111113O. Napirko206770
WSep 27 · 21:30S. Rak3812114113O. Napirko301051141
WDec 21 · 10:35S. Rak4391112113O. Napirko341191041
WDec 20 · 00:30S. Rak42711112113O. Napirko4311581182
WDec 16 · 16:05S. Rak331111113O. Napirko207670
WDec 16 · 00:30S. Rak4011711113O. Napirko30411781
S. Rak10
LOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790WOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113WOct 3 · 07:35Y. Kravets2.75591131S. Rak1.4011118113LOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113WOct 3 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111191092S. Rak2.63161112113WOct 2 · 18:35S. Rak2.75111115113D. Zeniuk1.409131391WOct 2 · 16:35D. Pesternikov1.4411961182S. Rak2.63611116113WOct 2 · 15:35S. Rak1.6711811113D. Shcherbak2.10411781WOct 2 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.5012360S. Rak1.501411113
O. Napirko10
LOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790LOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113LOct 3 · 06:05Y. Kravets1.44116711113O. Napirko2.6361111782LOct 3 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.1171111113O. Napirko6.00117531LSep 29 · 11:05O. Napirko2.004970I. Romaniak1.731111113LSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak1.2216116113O. Napirko4.001451171WSep 29 · 08:05O. Napirko2.10811816113D. Neborak1.67114111472LSep 29 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.10111210113O. Napirko6.507101241
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