TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Napirko vs Ivan Romaniak 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911711––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Ivan Romaniak at 54.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 3–5 Ivan Romaniak Oleh Napirko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Romaniak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Romaniak
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1593 vs Romaniak 1635
Romaniak
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 40% vs Romaniak 20%
Napirko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 20% vs Romaniak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -1 · Romaniak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Romaniak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 2.00 / Romaniak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Romaniak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13212607
Napirko2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 58 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Romaniak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 51 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNapirko3wins
AwayRomaniak5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderRomaniak leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko50%2 of 4
AwayRomaniak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko4Romaniak4n = 8split evenly
S2Napirko4Romaniak4n = 8split evenly
S3Napirko5Romaniak2n = 7Napirko took 5 of 7
S4Napirko0Romaniak5n = 5Romaniak took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricNapirkoRomaniakN − RBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match32.737.3−4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime425 / 854 vs 256 / 57449.8%44.6%425 / 854 vs 256 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakNapirko 2.00/Romaniak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 29 · 11:05O. Napirko204970I. Romaniak331111113
LSep 28 · 15:05O. Napirko28711551I. Romaniak4111811113
WFeb 10 · 00:00O. Napirko40111116113I. Romaniak4711891182
LFeb 6 · 22:30O. Napirko43111111552I. Romaniak46513611113
LFeb 3 · 14:05O. Napirko322811111I. Romaniak3911114133
WFeb 1 · 07:35O. Napirko331111113I. Romaniak186660
O. Napirko10
LSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak1.2216116113O. Napirko4.001451171WSep 29 · 08:05O. Napirko2.10811816113D. Neborak1.67114111472LSep 29 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.10111210113O. Napirko6.507101241WSep 29 · 05:35O. Napirko1.8311136113R. Lazebnyi1.838111181LSep 28 · 19:05O. Napirko1.9191112982D. Neborak1.801161011113LSep 28 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.1181111113O. Napirko6.00119641LSep 28 · 15:05I. Romaniak1.9111811113O. Napirko1.80711551LSep 28 · 14:05O. Napirko3.008660D. Shcherbak1.361111113LSep 28 · 13:05S. Rak1.171111113O. Napirko4.506770LSep 28 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk1.57411711113O. Napirko2.2511811882
I. Romaniak10
WSep 29 · 10:05D. Neborak1.73111114932I. Romaniak2.00461611113LSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.501111113I. Romaniak2.506960LSep 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi1.831291411113I. Romaniak1.83101116542LSep 29 · 04:35D. Shcherbak1.571111123I. Romaniak2.2559100LSep 28 · 18:05I. Romaniak2.3811281272I. Kozachuk1.539111110113WSep 28 · 16:35I. Romaniak2.501111113S. Rak1.509920WSep 28 · 15:05I. Romaniak1.9111811113O. Napirko1.80711551LSep 28 · 13:35I. Romaniak1.83931161D. Neborak1.8311118113LSep 28 · 12:05I. Romaniak2.208730D. Shcherbak1.611111113LSep 26 · 11:35D. Shcherbak1.671111113I. Romaniak2.106980
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