TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Oleh Napirko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118118––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched: 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Denys Shcherbak at 81.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 5–1 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4781.0%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 0.8pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1776 vs Napirko 1583
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 193 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Napirko 20%
Shcherbak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 50% vs Napirko 30%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Napirko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.222 / Napirko 4.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Shcherbak)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13245752
Shcherbak1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 162 of 273
Up 2–0, closes it92% 95 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it77% 129 of 168
Napirko4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 60 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeShcherbak5wins
AwayNapirko1wins
Shcherbak leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak100%5 of 5
AwayNapirkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Napirko1n = 6Shcherbak took 5 of 6
S2Shcherbak4Napirko2n = 6Shcherbak took 4 of 6
S3Shcherbak4Napirko2n = 6Shcherbak took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricShcherbakNapirkoS − NBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match34.829.0+5.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 710 vs 419 / 84351.8%49.7%368 / 710 vs 419 / 843Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.22/Napirko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 3 · 10:05D. Shcherbak3811511113O. Napirko34911861
WSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak4416116113O. Napirko371451171
WSep 28 · 14:05D. Shcherbak331111113O. Napirko208660
WSep 5 · 11:35D. Shcherbak331111113O. Napirko259970
WAug 28 · 13:05D. Shcherbak341112113O. Napirko2261060
LAug 8 · 11:05D. Shcherbak2771280O. Napirko361114113
D. Shcherbak10
LOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831WOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.67115771D. Shcherbak2.1081111113WOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113LOct 3 · 04:35Y. Kravets2.5061111113D. Shcherbak1.50118961LOct 2 · 19:05Y. Kravets2.631111113D. Shcherbak1.448790WOct 2 · 17:35D. Shcherbak2.75111111113D. Zeniuk1.40713991LOct 2 · 15:35S. Rak1.6711811113D. Shcherbak2.10411781LOct 2 · 13:35D. Pesternikov1.36511115113D. Shcherbak3.0011481172WOct 2 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.8311411982D. Shcherbak1.83611911113
O. Napirko10
LOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790LOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113LOct 3 · 06:05Y. Kravets1.44116711113O. Napirko2.6361111782LOct 3 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.1171111113O. Napirko6.00117531LSep 29 · 11:05O. Napirko2.004970I. Romaniak1.731111113LSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak1.2216116113O. Napirko4.001451171WSep 29 · 08:05O. Napirko2.10811816113D. Neborak1.67114111472LSep 29 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.10111210113O. Napirko6.507101241WSep 29 · 05:35O. Napirko1.8311136113R. Lazebnyi1.838111181
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