TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Denys Pesternikov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12109111141210––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 70.4%
79 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 32–71 Denys Pesternikov Denys Shcherbak has won 32 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4870.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-71 in 103
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 39 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1787 vs Pesternikov 1809
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Pesternikov 100%
Pesternikov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Pesternikov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Pesternikov +5
Pesternikov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 3.00 / Pesternikov 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Pesternikov)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250623
Shcherbak3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 78
Pesternikov1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 225 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it82% 179 of 219
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak2wins
AwayPesternikov8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak25%1 of 4
AwayPesternikov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak4Pesternikov6n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S2Shcherbak5Pesternikov5n = 10split evenly
S3Shcherbak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Pesternikov6n = 9Pesternikov took 6 of 9
S5Shcherbak1Pesternikov3n = 4Pesternikov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakPesternikovS − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.042.1−6.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 718 vs 596 / 110252%54.1%373 / 718 vs 596 / 1102Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovShcherbak 3.00/Pesternikov 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3811118442D. Pesternikov47771111113
LOct 3 · 11:05D. Shcherbak29711831D. Pesternikov4111811113
LOct 2 · 13:35D. Shcherbak4111481172D. Pesternikov43511115113
LOct 1 · 21:00D. Shcherbak30871141D. Pesternikov4011117113
LSep 26 · 07:35D. Shcherbak32811761D. Pesternikov4011711113
LSep 25 · 18:35D. Shcherbak227960D. Pesternikov331111113
WSep 22 · 08:05D. Shcherbak5511111111113D. Pesternikov4913691382
LSep 21 · 16:35D. Shcherbak28115661D. Pesternikov4181111113
LSep 17 · 21:00D. Shcherbak44541111132D. Pesternikov50111176153
WSep 15 · 11:05D. Shcherbak4111118113D. Pesternikov37991181
D. Shcherbak10
LOct 6 · 07:55A. Zeniuk1.6712811113D. Shcherbak2.101011851WOct 6 · 05:55I. Romaniak2.50771191D. Shcherbak1.5011119113WOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113WOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831WOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 6 · 08:25I. Kozachuk2.256660D. Pesternikov1.571111113WOct 6 · 06:25O. Napirko6.0081020D. Pesternikov1.111112113WOct 6 · 04:25I. Romaniak2.389111081D. Pesternikov1.5311612113WOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652WOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 15:25D. Pesternikov1.53118111092I. Romaniak2.38211612113LOct 5 · 14:25I. Kozachuk2.10611711113D. Pesternikov1.6711911452WOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831LOct 3 · 09:05Y. Kravets2.10115811113D. Pesternikov1.6761111772
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