TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Zeniuk vs Denys Shcherbak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210811118115––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:48 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAndrii Zeniuk to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Zeniuk above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Andrii Zeniuk at 55.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Zeniuk 15–13 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4855.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zeniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Zeniuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeniuk 1757 vs Shcherbak 1800
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeniuk 40% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeniuk 30% vs Shcherbak 70%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeniuk +2 · Shcherbak +3
Shcherbak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Zeniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeniuk 1.666 / Shcherbak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zeniuk)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250641
Zeniuk1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 79 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 56 of 69
Shcherbak2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeniuk4wins
AwayShcherbak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeniuk50%3 of 6
AwayShcherbak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeniuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S2Zeniuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Zeniuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S4Zeniuk3Shcherbak5n = 8Shcherbak took 5 of 8
S5Zeniuk1Shcherbak3n = 4Shcherbak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeniukShcherbakZ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.938.3+0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeniukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 473 vs 373 / 71753.3%52%252 / 473 vs 373 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeniukZeniuk 1.67/Shcherbak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Zeniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 17 · 02:30A. Zeniuk35119781D. Shcherbak4071111113
LJul 14 · 04:35A. Zeniuk496111111102D. Shcherbak45113613123
LJul 10 · 12:35A. Zeniuk26116361D. Shcherbak3961111113
LJul 9 · 22:00A. Zeniuk4191151152D. Shcherbak44117114113
WJun 23 · 08:25A. Zeniuk411218113D. Shcherbak35101690
WJun 22 · 13:55A. Zeniuk49971111113D. Shcherbak3811115472
WJun 19 · 01:30A. Zeniuk351113113D. Shcherbak2351170
LJun 10 · 11:05A. Zeniuk30411871D. Shcherbak4211911113
LJun 9 · 02:30A. Zeniuk4411117962D. Shcherbak47771111113
WJun 6 · 09:05A. Zeniuk3911611113D. Shcherbak30911821
A. Zeniuk10
LOct 6 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.50161458113A. Zeniuk1.501412111172WOct 6 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.50111312462A. Zeniuk1.5013111011113WOct 6 · 05:25A. Zeniuk1.2811611113O. Napirko3.50911861LOct 5 · 19:05A. Zeniuk7.00114471N. Danyliuk1.0861111113LOct 5 · 17:05B. Kohut1.2511911113A. Zeniuk3.75611621LOct 5 · 15:05D. Zeniuk1.4011711113A. Zeniuk2.75811661LOct 5 · 14:05A. Zeniuk4.0097100V. Verbyany1.221111123WOct 5 · 13:05A. Molochko1.22761141A. Zeniuk4.0011118113LOct 5 · 00:00A. Zeniuk3.75611691B. Kohut1.2511711113LOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171
D. Shcherbak10
WOct 6 · 05:55I. Romaniak2.50771191D. Shcherbak1.5011119113WOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113WOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831WOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.67115771D. Shcherbak2.1081111113
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