TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Romaniak vs Denys Shcherbak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711119911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Denys Shcherbak at 66.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 38–48 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Romaniak has won 38 of their 86 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Shcherbak beat Romaniak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5366.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-48 in 86
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 10 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1651 vs Shcherbak 1793
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 40% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 50% vs Shcherbak 70%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -2 · Shcherbak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.50 / Shcherbak 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Shcherbak)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13250684
Romaniak2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 119 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back27% 47 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 105
Shcherbak1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 164 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it92% 96 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it77% 131 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak2wins
AwayShcherbak8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak66.7%2 of 3
AwayShcherbak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak3Shcherbak7n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S2Romaniak4Shcherbak6n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S3Romaniak2Shcherbak8n = 10Shcherbak took 8 of 10
S4Romaniak0Shcherbak4n = 4Shcherbak took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakShcherbakR − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.937.6−7.7per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 580 vs 372 / 71644.7%52%259 / 580 vs 372 / 716Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakRomaniak 2.50/Shcherbak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 13:25I. Romaniak324117101D. Shcherbak4311911123
LSep 29 · 04:35I. Romaniak2459100D. Shcherbak341111123
LSep 28 · 12:05I. Romaniak188730D. Shcherbak331111113
LSep 26 · 11:35I. Romaniak236980D. Shcherbak331111113
LSep 25 · 14:05I. Romaniak33711961D. Shcherbak3911611113
LSep 25 · 03:00I. Romaniak155460D. Shcherbak331111113
WSep 22 · 10:05I. Romaniak52119129113D. Shcherbak49811101192
LSep 21 · 13:35I. Romaniak46111266112D. Shcherbak549101111133
LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak236890D. Shcherbak331111113
WSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak331111113D. Shcherbak259880
I. Romaniak10
LOct 6 · 04:25I. Romaniak2.389111081D. Pesternikov1.5311612113LOct 5 · 18:55S. Rak1.401111113I. Romaniak2.754970WOct 5 · 17:25I. Romaniak1.6151111113O. Napirko2.20115971WOct 5 · 15:25D. Pesternikov1.53118111092I. Romaniak2.38211612113LOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WOct 5 · 12:25I. Kozachuk1.501112951I. Romaniak2.50131011113WSep 29 · 11:05O. Napirko2.004970I. Romaniak1.731111113WSep 29 · 10:05D. Neborak1.73111114932I. Romaniak2.00461611113LSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.501111113I. Romaniak2.506960LSep 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi1.831291411113I. Romaniak1.83101116542
D. Shcherbak10
WOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113WOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831WOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.67115771D. Shcherbak2.1081111113WOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113
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