TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Zeniuk vs Vasily Verbyany 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9117111012––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched: 80.1% is still 80.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
80.1%
80.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Zeniuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 60 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 80.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Zeniuk 5–21 Vasily Verbyany Andrii Zeniuk has won 5 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0280.1%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 1.7pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-21 in 26
Verbyany
Correct
gap of 16 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeniuk 1764 vs Verbyany 1928
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeniuk 40% vs Verbyany 20%
Zeniuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeniuk 20% vs Verbyany 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeniuk +1 · Verbyany -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (20%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeniuk 4.00 / Verbyany 1.222
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Verbyany)-1.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245389
Zeniuk4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 50 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Verbyany1.22
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 42 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeniuk0wins
AwayVerbyany10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeniukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVerbyany100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeniuk2Verbyany8n = 10Verbyany took 8 of 10
S2Zeniuk2Verbyany8n = 10Verbyany took 8 of 10
S3Zeniuk3Verbyany7n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S4Zeniuk1Verbyany5n = 6Verbyany took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeniukVerbyanyZ − VBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.639.3−9.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeniukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 467 vs 346 / 82353.5%42%250 / 467 vs 346 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyZeniuk 4.00/Verbyany 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.1%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 23:00A. Zeniuk313101171V. Verbyany4011126113
LSep 8 · 08:05A. Zeniuk2011180V. Verbyany351311113
LSep 7 · 18:35A. Zeniuk196670V. Verbyany331111113
LSep 6 · 20:30A. Zeniuk36712891V. Verbyany43111011113
LSep 4 · 06:55A. Zeniuk163580V. Verbyany331111113
LSep 3 · 15:25A. Zeniuk361011961V. Verbyany4312911113
LAug 31 · 15:35A. Zeniuk183960V. Verbyany331111113
LAug 30 · 23:30A. Zeniuk4911911992V. Verbyany49911711113
LAug 24 · 15:35A. Zeniuk3774111142V. Verbyany44111129113
LAug 21 · 07:55A. Zeniuk34119771V. Verbyany4071111113
A. Zeniuk10
LOct 5 · 15:05D. Zeniuk1.4011711113A. Zeniuk2.75811661WOct 5 · 13:05A. Molochko1.22761141A. Zeniuk4.0011118113LOct 5 · 00:00A. Zeniuk3.75611691B. Kohut1.2511711113LOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171LOct 4 · 22:00N. Danyliuk1.081114113A. Zeniuk7.0081280WOct 4 · 20:30D. Zeniuk1.448770A. Zeniuk2.631111113LSep 8 · 11:35B. Kohut1.25115911113A. Zeniuk3.7571111882LSep 8 · 10:05A. Zeniuk2.7511761232D. Zeniuk1.408111110113LSep 8 · 08:05V. Verbyany1.201311113A. Zeniuk4.3311180LSep 8 · 06:05A. Molochko1.17111111113A. Zeniuk4.50138281
V. Verbyany10
LOct 5 · 12:05D. Zeniuk2.00111112113V. Verbyany1.738131051LOct 5 · 00:30N. Danyliuk1.53111110113V. Verbyany2.38301281WOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171LOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113LOct 4 · 20:00V. Verbyany1.806811121B. Kohut1.9111118143LSep 29 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.207840A. Molochko1.611111113LSep 29 · 08:25V. Verbyany2.638111111N. Danyliuk1.4411711133WSep 29 · 07:25A. Molochko1.731181171V. Verbyany2.0013114113WSep 29 · 06:25B. Kohut2.2089111462V. Verbyany1.611111712113WSep 8 · 08:05V. Verbyany1.201311113A. Zeniuk4.3311180
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