TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Verbyany vs Bohdan Kohut 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6118111181214––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Bohdan Kohut below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 55–59 Bohdan Kohut Vasily Verbyany has won 55 of their 114 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Verbyany
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-59 in 114
Kohut
Correct
gap of 4 in 114, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1949 vs Kohut 1935
Verbyany
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 40% vs Kohut 20%
Verbyany
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 40% vs Kohut 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -2 · Kohut -4
Kohut
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kohut form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.80 / Kohut 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Verbyany)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240413
Verbyany1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 51 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 41 of 55
Kohut1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 106 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back17% 28 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany5wins
AwayKohut5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany100%3 of 3
AwayKohut71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany3Kohut7n = 10Kohut took 7 of 10
S2Verbyany5Kohut5n = 10split evenly
S3Verbyany8Kohut2n = 10Verbyany took 8 of 10
S4Verbyany2Kohut7n = 9Kohut took 7 of 9
S5Verbyany3Kohut1n = 4Verbyany took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyKohutV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.739.8+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyKohutBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 819 vs 302 / 68642.1%44%345 / 819 vs 302 / 686Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.80/Kohut 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kohut won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 20:00V. Verbyany376811121B. Kohut4411118143
WSep 29 · 06:25V. Verbyany521111712113B. Kohut4889111462
LSep 28 · 14:55V. Verbyany381081191B. Kohut3912115113
WSep 27 · 23:15V. Verbyany331111113B. Kohut196670
LSep 23 · 07:35V. Verbyany4061011131B. Kohut4411126153
WSep 22 · 12:35V. Verbyany3961111113B. Kohut29115491
LSep 22 · 01:18V. Verbyany315511101B. Kohut4011116123
LSep 21 · 20:30V. Verbyany51131111972B. Kohut50155811113
WSep 15 · 07:55V. Verbyany46111194113B. Kohut4046111182
WSep 14 · 12:55V. Verbyany503111411113B. Kohut45111312182
V. Verbyany10
LOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113LSep 29 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.207840A. Molochko1.611111113LSep 29 · 08:25V. Verbyany2.638111111N. Danyliuk1.4411711133WSep 29 · 07:25A. Molochko1.731181171V. Verbyany2.0013114113WSep 29 · 06:25B. Kohut2.2089111462V. Verbyany1.611111712113LSep 29 · 04:55D. Zeniuk2.001211123V. Verbyany1.73107100LSep 28 · 16:54V. Verbyany2.00119471A. Molochko1.7371111113WSep 28 · 15:55V. Verbyany1.801111133D. Zeniuk1.9147110LSep 28 · 14:55B. Kohut2.1012115113V. Verbyany1.671081191LSep 28 · 13:55A. Molochko1.7371111113V. Verbyany2.00118191
B. Kohut10
LOct 4 · 21:00N. Danyliuk1.33114116113B. Kohut3.2571161182LSep 29 · 08:55B. Kohut3.25911561A. Molochko1.3311811113LSep 29 · 07:55B. Kohut1.8051111892D. Zeniuk1.91119811113LSep 29 · 06:25B. Kohut2.2089111462V. Verbyany1.611111712113LSep 29 · 05:25B. Kohut3.5061380N. Danyliuk1.281115113WSep 28 · 17:23N. Danyliuk1.3312141041B. Kohut3.25101612113WSep 28 · 16:25A. Molochko1.407460B. Kohut2.751111113WSep 28 · 14:55B. Kohut2.1012115113V. Verbyany1.671081191LSep 28 · 13:25B. Kohut3.2591161162N. Danyliuk1.33113113113WSep 28 · 11:55B. Kohut1.8371111113D. Zeniuk1.83117861
Upcoming Matches
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