TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Zeniuk vs Vasily Verbyany 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101171210––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:52 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Zeniuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 62 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.1%
62 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Zeniuk 39–56 Vasily Verbyany Dmytro Zeniuk has won 39 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Verbyany beat Zeniuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Verbyany
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-56 in 95
Verbyany
Wrong
gap of 17 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeniuk 1973 vs Verbyany 1975
Verbyany
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeniuk 0% vs Verbyany 40%
Verbyany
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeniuk 30% vs Verbyany 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeniuk -5 · Verbyany -1
Zeniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeniuk 2.00 / Verbyany 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Verbyany)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13212364
Zeniuk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 53 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Verbyany1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 51 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 40 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeniuk5wins
AwayVerbyany5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeniuk100%4 of 4
AwayVerbyany83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeniuk4Verbyany6n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S2Zeniuk6Verbyany4n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Zeniuk4Verbyany6n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S4Zeniuk4Verbyany4n = 8split evenly
S5Zeniuk2Verbyany1n = 3Zeniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeniukVerbyanyZ − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.4−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeniukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 711 vs 347 / 82849.9%41.9%355 / 711 vs 347 / 828Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyZeniuk 2.00/Verbyany 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 15:55D. Zeniuk2247110V. Verbyany351111133
WSep 28 · 00:15D. Zeniuk4111712113V. Verbyany314111061
WSep 23 · 04:35D. Zeniuk331111113V. Verbyany196940
LSep 22 · 14:35D. Zeniuk28711821V. Verbyany4211911113
WSep 21 · 22:30D. Zeniuk47712611113V. Verbyany44111011752
LSep 15 · 04:55D. Zeniuk4191121182V. Verbyany50119118113
LSep 14 · 15:55D. Zeniuk28411491V. Verbyany4211911113
WSep 13 · 22:45D. Zeniuk47126126113V. Verbyany491011101172
WSep 11 · 08:55D. Zeniuk4011511133V. Verbyany313116111
LSep 8 · 11:05D. Zeniuk368117101V. Verbyany4111711123
D. Zeniuk10
LSep 28 · 15:55V. Verbyany1.801111133D. Zeniuk1.9147110LSep 28 · 14:25N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.406980LSep 28 · 12:55A. Molochko1.83111110113D. Zeniuk1.83771261LSep 28 · 11:55B. Kohut1.8371111113D. Zeniuk1.83117861LSep 28 · 01:18D. Zeniuk3.5011981292N. Danyliuk1.286111110113WSep 28 · 00:15V. Verbyany1.674111061D. Zeniuk2.1011712113LSep 27 · 22:45N. Danyliuk1.281211113D. Zeniuk3.5010670WSep 27 · 21:15A. Molochko1.83971181D. Zeniuk1.8311119113LSep 27 · 20:15B. Kohut1.8310121310113D. Zeniuk1.831210111262WSep 23 · 11:05A. Grebeniuk1.1798111192D. Zeniuk4.50111148113
V. Verbyany10
LSep 28 · 16:54V. Verbyany2.00119471A. Molochko1.7371111113WSep 28 · 15:55V. Verbyany1.801111133D. Zeniuk1.9147110LSep 28 · 14:55B. Kohut2.1012115113V. Verbyany1.671081191LSep 28 · 13:55A. Molochko1.7371111113V. Verbyany2.00118191WSep 28 · 12:25N. Danyliuk1.50111051182V. Verbyany2.50712115113LSep 28 · 01:50V. Verbyany2.20711661A. Molochko1.6111911113LSep 28 · 00:15V. Verbyany1.674111061D. Zeniuk2.1011712113WSep 27 · 23:15B. Kohut2.206670V. Verbyany1.611111113WSep 27 · 22:15A. Molochko1.738670V. Verbyany2.001111113LSep 27 · 20:45N. Danyliuk1.50871111163V. Verbyany2.50111199142
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