TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Verbyany vs Anton Molochko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:41 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Anton Molochko at 56.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 81–156 Anton Molochko Vasily Verbyany has won 81 of their 237 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Verbyany beat Molochko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Molochko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
81-156 in 237
Molochko
Correct
gap of 75 in 237, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1983 vs Molochko 1981
Verbyany
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 40% vs Molochko 60%
Molochko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 30% vs Molochko 60%
Molochko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -1 · Molochko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Molochko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 2.20 / Molochko 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Molochko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13209160
Verbyany2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 91 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 79
Molochko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 138 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it84% 99 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany7wins
AwayMolochko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany100%5 of 5
AwayMolochko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany5Molochko5n = 10split evenly
S2Verbyany6Molochko4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S3Verbyany5Molochko5n = 10split evenly
S4Verbyany5Molochko1n = 6Verbyany took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyMolochkoV − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.831.2+2.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 823 vs 528 / 91741.9%57.6%345 / 823 vs 528 / 917Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoVerbyany 2.20/Molochko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 01:50V. Verbyany30711661A. Molochko4211911113
WSep 27 · 22:15V. Verbyany331111113A. Molochko218670
LSep 23 · 06:05V. Verbyany165560A. Molochko331111113
WSep 22 · 15:35V. Verbyany48511911123A. Molochko43119112102
WSep 21 · 23:30V. Verbyany4291111113A. Molochko34116981
WSep 15 · 06:55V. Verbyany4111711123A. Molochko368117101
WSep 14 · 11:55V. Verbyany331111113A. Molochko155460
LSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany176920A. Molochko331111113
WSep 13 · 23:45V. Verbyany4111811113A. Molochko25811511
WSep 11 · 06:55V. Verbyany3711114113A. Molochko30651181
V. Verbyany10
LSep 28 · 00:15V. Verbyany1.674111061D. Zeniuk2.1011712113WSep 27 · 23:15B. Kohut2.206670V. Verbyany1.611111113WSep 27 · 22:15A. Molochko1.738670V. Verbyany2.001111113LSep 27 · 20:45N. Danyliuk1.50871111163V. Verbyany2.50111199142LSep 23 · 10:35V. Verbyany2.63641111102N. Danyliuk1.44111199123LSep 23 · 09:05V. Verbyany5.005490A. Grebeniuk1.141111113LSep 23 · 07:35V. Verbyany1.6761011131B. Kohut2.1011126153LSep 23 · 06:05V. Verbyany1.835560A. Molochko1.831111113LSep 23 · 04:35V. Verbyany1.736940D. Zeniuk2.001111113WSep 22 · 17:43V. Verbyany2.251111113N. Danyliuk1.578390
A. Molochko10
WSep 28 · 00:45A. Molochko1.40118118153B. Kohut2.75911811132WSep 27 · 23:45A. Molochko2.001110811113N. Danyliuk1.7381211882LSep 27 · 22:15A. Molochko1.738670V. Verbyany2.001111113LSep 27 · 21:15A. Molochko1.83971181D. Zeniuk1.8311119113WSep 23 · 11:35B. Kohut2.6367100A. Molochko1.441111123WSep 23 · 10:05A. Molochko1.8311711133D. Zeniuk1.838119111WSep 23 · 08:05A. Grebeniuk1.30101114982A. Molochko3.401281211113WSep 23 · 06:05V. Verbyany1.835560A. Molochko1.831111113LSep 23 · 05:05N. Danyliuk1.80131187113A. Molochko1.91112111162LSep 22 · 17:15D. Zeniuk2.001211113A. Molochko1.7310970
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