TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Nazar Danyliuk vs Anton Molochko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311112811711116
Anton Molochko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:20 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 54.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 178–157 Anton Molochko Anton Molochko has won 157 of their 335 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Danyliuk beat Molochko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
178-157 in 335
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 21 in 335, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2118 vs Molochko 1905
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 60% vs Molochko 40%
Danyliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 50% vs Molochko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk -1 · Molochko -3
Molochko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Danyliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.80 / Molochko 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Danyliuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13179744
Danyliuk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 174 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it95% 88 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it82% 129 of 158
Molochko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 57 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk8wins
AwayMolochko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk100%4 of 4
AwayMolochko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk4Molochko6n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Danyliuk9Molochko1n = 10Danyliuk took 9 of 10
S3Danyliuk7Molochko3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S4Danyliuk6Molochko2n = 8Danyliuk took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukMolochkoD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.034.8+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 964 vs 535 / 92361.1%58%589 / 964 vs 535 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.80/Molochko 1.91
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 16:35N. Danyliuk44111111113A. Molochko33138931
LSep 22 · 24:30N. Danyliuk4281171152A. Molochko45113119113
WSep 15 · 04:25N. Danyliuk3631111113A. Molochko34118961
WSep 14 · 13:25N. Danyliuk361212123A. Molochko301010100
WSep 14 · 24:45N. Danyliuk46101111143A. Molochko321253121
WSep 11 · 08:25N. Danyliuk45116116113A. Molochko4451191182
WSep 10 · 17:01N. Danyliuk331111113A. Molochko202990
WSep 10 · 12:25N. Danyliuk3811115113A. Molochko29561171
LSep 8 · 10:35N. Danyliuk374121291A. Molochko46111014113
WSep 7 · 18:05N. Danyliuk43101111113A. Molochko35129591
N. Danyliuk10
LSep 22 · 17:43V. Verbyany2.251111113N. Danyliuk1.578390WSep 22 · 16:35A. Molochko2.10138931N. Danyliuk1.67111111113WSep 22 · 15:05N. Danyliuk1.301111113B. Kohut3.409880WSep 22 · 13:35N. Danyliuk1.441111113V. Verbyany2.636770LSep 22 · 12:05N. Danyliuk1.25117951D. Zeniuk3.7591111113LSep 22 · 24:30A. Molochko1.91113119113N. Danyliuk1.8081171152WSep 21 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.251111123B. Kohut3.7568100LSep 21 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.61911581V. Verbyany2.2011411113LSep 21 · 20:00N. Danyliuk1.30711761D. Zeniuk3.4011411113WSep 15 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.2098100N. Danyliuk1.611111123
A. Molochko10
WSep 23 · 06:05V. Verbyany1.835560A. Molochko1.831111113LSep 22 · 17:15D. Zeniuk2.001211113A. Molochko1.7310970LSep 22 · 16:35A. Molochko2.10138931N. Danyliuk1.67111111113LSep 22 · 15:35A. Molochko1.57119112102V. Verbyany2.25511911123WSep 22 · 14:05A. Molochko1.401115143B. Kohut2.75913120WSep 22 · 13:05A. Molochko1.83611811113D. Zeniuk1.8311911492LSep 22 · 01:38D. Zeniuk1.80611911123A. Molochko1.91118119102WSep 22 · 24:30A. Molochko1.91113119113N. Danyliuk1.8081171152LSep 21 · 23:30A. Molochko1.57116981V. Verbyany2.2591111113WSep 21 · 22:00A. Molochko1.361112113B. Kohut3.0091080
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