TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Grebeniuk vs Anton Molochko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Andrii Grebeniuk
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121181412911811
Anton Molochko
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:19 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Grebeniuk to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Grebeniuk above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 106 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Andrii Grebeniuk at 78.6%
106 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Grebeniuk 72–17 Anton Molochko Anton Molochko has won 17 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Grebeniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-17 in 89
Grebeniuk
Wrong
gap of 55 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grebeniuk 2070 vs Molochko 1920
Grebeniuk
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grebeniuk 60% vs Molochko 20%
Grebeniuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grebeniuk 60% vs Molochko 40%
Grebeniuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grebeniuk -1 · Molochko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Grebeniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grebeniuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrebeniuk 1.30 / Molochko 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Grebeniuk)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13179735
Grebeniuk1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 30 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Molochko3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 57 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back27% 23 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrebeniuk7wins
AwayMolochko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGrebeniuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrebeniukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMolochko37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grebeniuk2Molochko8n = 10Molochko took 8 of 10
S2Grebeniuk7Molochko3n = 10Grebeniuk took 7 of 10
S3Grebeniuk7Molochko3n = 10Grebeniuk took 7 of 10
S4Grebeniuk5Molochko4n = 9Grebeniuk took 5 of 9
S5Grebeniuk3Molochko1n = 4Grebeniuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrebeniukMolochkoG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.1+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrebeniukMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 149 vs 532 / 92174.5%57.8%111 / 149 vs 532 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrebeniukGrebeniuk 1.30/Molochko 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.8%
Grebeniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 19 · 15:25A. Grebeniuk50711118133A. Molochko43116411112
LJun 18 · 22:15A. Grebeniuk3941111492A. Molochko50119811113
LJun 4 · 19:50A. Grebeniuk295311101A. Molochko4111117123
WMay 29 · 06:20A. Grebeniuk4291111113A. Molochko32114981
WMay 28 · 16:20A. Grebeniuk4011117113A. Molochko32861171
LJan 9 · 13:50A. Grebeniuk35791181A. Molochko4111118113
WNov 11 · 10:35A. Grebeniuk3711114113A. Molochko31871151
WNov 10 · 13:35A. Grebeniuk49861311113A. Molochko41111111262
WNov 9 · 21:30A. Grebeniuk47714211133A. Molochko501112115112
A. Grebeniuk10
WSep 23 · 09:05V. Verbyany5.005490A. Grebeniuk1.141111113LSep 23 · 07:05N. Danyliuk2.631111511113A. Grebeniuk1.4476111382WSep 23 · 05:35A. Grebeniuk1.171111113B. Kohut4.509830LJun 19 · 18:55B. Kohut4.50111266123A. Grebeniuk1.172101111102WJun 19 · 17:25A. Grebeniuk1.2561111113V. Hryban3.75113991WJun 19 · 15:25A. Molochko3.75116411112A. Grebeniuk1.25711118133WJun 19 · 13:25N. Danyliuk3.00911571A. Grebeniuk1.3611811113WJun 19 · 12:25V. Verbyany5.50911621A. Grebeniuk1.1311811113LJun 19 · 02:45N. Danyliuk2.7511115113A. Grebeniuk1.40491161LJun 19 · 01:45V. Hryban3.7511118113A. Grebeniuk1.25481181
A. Molochko10
WSep 23 · 06:05V. Verbyany1.835560A. Molochko1.831111113LSep 23 · 05:05N. Danyliuk1.80131187113A. Molochko1.91112111162LSep 22 · 17:15D. Zeniuk2.001211113A. Molochko1.7310970LSep 22 · 16:35A. Molochko2.10138931N. Danyliuk1.67111111113LSep 22 · 15:35A. Molochko1.57119112102V. Verbyany2.25511911123WSep 22 · 14:05A. Molochko1.401115143B. Kohut2.75913120WSep 22 · 13:05A. Molochko1.83611811113D. Zeniuk1.8311911492LSep 22 · 01:38D. Zeniuk1.80611911123A. Molochko1.91118119102WSep 22 · 24:30A. Molochko1.91113119113N. Danyliuk1.8081171152LJun 19 · 15:25A. Molochko3.75116411112A. Grebeniuk1.25711118133
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