TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Zeniuk vs Vasily Verbyany 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11811131210115––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:03 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Zeniuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 81 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Zeniuk 41–56 Vasily Verbyany Dmytro Zeniuk has won 41 of their 97 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Verbyany
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-56 in 97
Verbyany
Wrong
gap of 15 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeniuk 1983 vs Verbyany 1938
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeniuk 40% vs Verbyany 20%
Zeniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeniuk 60% vs Verbyany 30%
Zeniuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeniuk +1 · Verbyany -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeniuk 2.00 / Verbyany 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Verbyany)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245402
Zeniuk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 58 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Verbyany1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 52 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 42 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeniuk6wins
AwayVerbyany4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeniuk100%5 of 5
AwayVerbyany80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeniuk5Verbyany5n = 10split evenly
S2Zeniuk6Verbyany4n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Zeniuk5Verbyany5n = 10split evenly
S4Zeniuk4Verbyany3n = 7Zeniuk took 4 of 7
S5Zeniuk2Verbyany1n = 3Zeniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeniukVerbyanyZ − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.6−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeniukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 700 vs 346 / 82249.1%42.1%344 / 700 vs 346 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyZeniuk 2.00/Verbyany 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 21:30D. Zeniuk3811511113V. Verbyany27311941
WSep 29 · 04:55D. Zeniuk351211123V. Verbyany27107100
LSep 28 · 15:55D. Zeniuk2247110V. Verbyany351111133
WSep 28 · 00:15D. Zeniuk4111712113V. Verbyany314111061
WSep 23 · 04:35D. Zeniuk331111113V. Verbyany196940
LSep 22 · 14:35D. Zeniuk28711821V. Verbyany4211911113
WSep 21 · 22:30D. Zeniuk47712611113V. Verbyany44111011752
LSep 15 · 04:55D. Zeniuk4191121182V. Verbyany50119118113
LSep 14 · 15:55D. Zeniuk28411491V. Verbyany4211911113
WSep 13 · 22:45D. Zeniuk47126126113V. Verbyany491011101172
D. Zeniuk10
LOct 5 · 13:35D. Zeniuk2.204980N. Danyliuk1.611111113WOct 4 · 23:30N. Danyliuk1.2811761472D. Zeniuk3.507111112113LOct 4 · 22:30D. Zeniuk2.006890B. Kohut1.731111113WOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113LOct 4 · 20:30D. Zeniuk1.448770A. Zeniuk2.631111113LOct 2 · 18:35S. Rak2.75111115113D. Zeniuk1.409131391LOct 2 · 17:35D. Shcherbak2.75111111113D. Zeniuk1.40713991WOct 2 · 16:05I. Kozachuk3.00114681D. Zeniuk1.3691111113WOct 2 · 14:05Y. Kravets3.2594110D. Zeniuk1.331111133WOct 2 · 12:05D. Pesternikov2.505830D. Zeniuk1.501111113
V. Verbyany10
LOct 5 · 00:30N. Danyliuk1.53111110113V. Verbyany2.38301281WOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171LOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113LOct 4 · 20:00V. Verbyany1.806811121B. Kohut1.9111118143LSep 29 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.207840A. Molochko1.611111113LSep 29 · 08:25V. Verbyany2.638111111N. Danyliuk1.4411711133WSep 29 · 07:25A. Molochko1.731181171V. Verbyany2.0013114113WSep 29 · 06:25B. Kohut2.2089111462V. Verbyany1.611111712113LSep 29 · 04:55D. Zeniuk2.001211123V. Verbyany1.73107100LSep 28 · 16:54V. Verbyany2.00119471A. Molochko1.7371111113
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