TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Napirko vs Denys Pesternikov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012211––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:14 and never touched: 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 54 set 3, 2-11 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 88.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 1–7 Denys Pesternikov Oleh Napirko has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1488.6%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 1.4pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1552 vs Pesternikov 1800
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 248 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 0% vs Pesternikov 60%
Pesternikov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 10% vs Pesternikov 60%
Pesternikov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -8 · Pesternikov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 6.00 / Pesternikov 1.111
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Pesternikov)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251084
Napirko6.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 60 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Pesternikov1.11
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 225 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it82% 179 of 219
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNapirko1wins
AwayPesternikov7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPesternikov leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPesternikov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko1Pesternikov7n = 8Pesternikov took 7 of 8
S2Napirko3Pesternikov5n = 8Pesternikov took 5 of 8
S3Napirko3Pesternikov5n = 8Pesternikov took 5 of 8
S4Napirko1Pesternikov5n = 6Pesternikov took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricNapirkoPesternikovN − PBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match30.040.1−10.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 847 vs 595 / 110149.5%54%419 / 847 vs 595 / 1101Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovNapirko 6.00/Pesternikov 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 6 · 06:25O. Napirko2081020D. Pesternikov341112113
LOct 5 · 18:25O. Napirko3911116652D. Pesternikov50891111113
WOct 3 · 08:05O. Napirko44311811113D. Pesternikov3911711462
LSep 27 · 23:30O. Napirko23711141D. Pesternikov4111118113
LNov 14 · 22:30O. Napirko225890D. Pesternikov331111113
LNov 7 · 02:12O. Napirko30671161D. Pesternikov4211119113
LNov 6 · 21:30O. Napirko33981151D. Pesternikov4211119113
LOct 19 · 07:35O. Napirko29311781D. Pesternikov4011711113
O. Napirko10
WOct 6 · 07:25I. Romaniak1.531141091O. Napirko2.3861112113LOct 6 · 05:25A. Zeniuk1.2811611113O. Napirko3.50911861LOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652LOct 5 · 17:25I. Romaniak1.6151111113O. Napirko2.20115971LOct 5 · 15:55I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.506990LOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790LOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 6 · 04:25I. Romaniak2.389111081D. Pesternikov1.5311612113WOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652WOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 15:25D. Pesternikov1.53118111092I. Romaniak2.38211612113LOct 5 · 14:25I. Kozachuk2.10611711113D. Pesternikov1.6711911452WOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831LOct 3 · 09:05Y. Kravets2.10115811113D. Pesternikov1.6761111772LOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113WOct 3 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.007840D. Pesternikov1.731111113
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