TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Oleh Napirko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911116116115
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:09 and never touched: 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 89.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 6–1 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0989.3%Our read90.9%to break even at 1.10
short by 1.6pp90.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.10 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1786 vs Napirko 1547
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 239 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Napirko 0%
Pesternikov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 50% vs Napirko 10%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +1 · Napirko -6
Napirko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (0%) is below what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.10 / Napirko 6.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Pesternikov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245483
Pesternikov1.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 222 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it83% 179 of 217
Napirko6.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 60 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePesternikov6wins
AwayNapirko1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov83.3%5 of 6
AwayNapirkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov6Napirko1n = 7Pesternikov took 6 of 7
S2Pesternikov4Napirko3n = 7Pesternikov took 4 of 7
S3Pesternikov4Napirko3n = 7Pesternikov took 4 of 7
S4Pesternikov5Napirko1n = 6Pesternikov took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricPesternikovNapirkoP − NBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match41.031.4+9.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime593 / 1099 vs 418 / 84454%49.5%593 / 1099 vs 418 / 844Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.10/Napirko 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.3%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov50891111113O. Napirko3911116652
LOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov3911711462O. Napirko44311811113
WSep 27 · 23:30D. Pesternikov4111118113O. Napirko23711141
WNov 14 · 22:30D. Pesternikov331111113O. Napirko225890
WNov 7 · 02:12D. Pesternikov4211119113O. Napirko30671161
WNov 6 · 21:30D. Pesternikov4211119113O. Napirko33981151
WOct 19 · 07:35D. Pesternikov4011711113O. Napirko29311781
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 15:25D. Pesternikov1.53118111092I. Romaniak2.38211612113LOct 5 · 14:25I. Kozachuk2.10611711113D. Pesternikov1.6711911452WOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831LOct 3 · 09:05Y. Kravets2.10115811113D. Pesternikov1.6761111772LOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113WOct 3 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.007840D. Pesternikov1.731111113LOct 3 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111191092S. Rak2.63161112113WOct 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov1.801111117113I. Kozachuk1.9186131112
O. Napirko10
LOct 5 · 17:25I. Romaniak1.6151111113O. Napirko2.20115971LOct 5 · 15:55I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.506990LOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790LOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko4.00911861D. Shcherbak1.2211511113WOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113LOct 3 · 06:05Y. Kravets1.44116711113O. Napirko2.6361111782LOct 3 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.1171111113O. Napirko6.00117531LSep 29 · 11:05O. Napirko2.004970I. Romaniak1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
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