TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Ivan Kozachuk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181161113711111
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Denys Pesternikov @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 90 set 5, 11-1 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 154–144 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 144 of their 298 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:3454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
154-144 in 298
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 10 in 298, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1791 vs Kozachuk 1744
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 20% vs Kozachuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 40% vs Kozachuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov -2 · Kozachuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.80 / Kozachuk 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pesternikov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229260
Pesternikov1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 221 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it95% 126 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it83% 179 of 215
Kozachuk1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 91 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov8wins
AwayKozachuk2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov83.3%5 of 6
AwayKozachuk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov6Kozachuk4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S2Pesternikov7Kozachuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S3Pesternikov9Kozachuk1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S4Pesternikov5Kozachuk1n = 6Pesternikov took 5 of 6
S5Pesternikov1Kozachuk2n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKozachukP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.332.4+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime591 / 1098 vs 559 / 111053.8%50.4%591 / 1098 vs 559 / 1110Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.80/Kozachuk 1.91
Hit
What we said
54%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Denys Pesternikov @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
3–2
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 22:30D. Pesternikov341112113I. Kozachuk1851030
WSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov331111113I. Kozachuk238690
WSep 25 · 14:35D. Pesternikov331111113I. Kozachuk175840
LSep 22 · 07:05D. Pesternikov4251212492I. Kozachuk5311101011113
LSep 21 · 14:35D. Pesternikov4311761182I. Kozachuk45911113113
WSep 17 · 22:30D. Pesternikov4071111113I. Kozachuk35118881
WSep 15 · 07:05D. Pesternikov4051113113I. Kozachuk321161141
WSep 14 · 14:35D. Pesternikov3911611113I. Kozachuk32611691
WSep 13 · 22:30D. Pesternikov361411113I. Kozachuk2712960
WSep 8 · 06:55D. Pesternikov538121111113I. Kozachuk4211140982
D. Pesternikov10
LOct 2 · 16:35D. Pesternikov1.4411961182S. Rak2.63611116113LOct 2 · 15:05D. Pesternikov1.614101181Y. Kravets2.2011128113WOct 2 · 13:35D. Pesternikov1.36511115113D. Shcherbak3.0011481172LOct 2 · 12:05D. Pesternikov2.505830D. Zeniuk1.501111113LOct 2 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4411117682N. Kovalchuk2.63511111113WOct 2 · 00:30S. Rak2.6310220D. Pesternikov1.441211113LOct 1 · 23:30D. Pesternikov2.38413971D. Zeniuk1.53111111113WOct 1 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.0051030D. Pesternikov1.731112113WOct 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.3611117113D. Shcherbak3.00871141LSep 28 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4041211632R. Lazebnyi2.751110311113
I. Kozachuk10
WOct 2 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.731111113Y. Kravets2.006560LOct 2 · 16:05I. Kozachuk3.00114681D. Zeniuk1.3691111113LOct 2 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.5012360S. Rak1.501411113LOct 2 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.8311411982D. Shcherbak1.83611911113LOct 2 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.254740LOct 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8071150D. Shcherbak1.911113113WOct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.831111113N. Kovalchuk1.838990LOct 1 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.0051030D. Pesternikov1.731112113LOct 1 · 20:30I. Kozachuk3.001177121D. Zeniuk1.3651111143WSep 29 · 10:35D. Shcherbak1.8391030I. Kozachuk1.831112113
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