TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115111711611811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:22 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 82 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 67.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 26–18 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 18 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2267.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-18 in 44
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 8 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1832 vs Kovalchuk 1651
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 50% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +1 · Kovalchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.444 / Kovalchuk 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Pesternikov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223716
Pesternikov1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 221 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it95% 125 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it84% 178 of 213
Kovalchuk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 47 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Pesternikov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov4Kovalchuk3n = 7Pesternikov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKovalchukP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.8+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1093 vs 408 / 78554%52%590 / 1093 vs 408 / 785Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.44/Kovalchuk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov35116991N. Kovalchuk3851111113
LSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov187380N. Kovalchuk331111113
LAug 22 · 05:05D. Pesternikov47118711102N. Kovalchuk45411117123
WAug 21 · 16:35D. Pesternikov4011711113N. Kovalchuk29311961
WJul 2 · 22:00D. Pesternikov44111111113N. Kovalchuk30133771
WJun 13 · 07:05D. Pesternikov4912914143N. Kovalchuk45101112121
WJun 4 · 20:00D. Pesternikov48127117113N. Kovalchuk48101181182
WJun 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov351111133N. Kovalchuk2577110
WJun 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov381111163N. Kovalchuk2868140
LMay 17 · 21:15D. Pesternikov33681181N. Kovalchuk3711114113
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 2 · 00:30S. Rak2.6310220D. Pesternikov1.441211113LOct 1 · 23:30D. Pesternikov2.38413971D. Zeniuk1.53111111113WOct 1 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.0051030D. Pesternikov1.731112113WOct 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.3611117113D. Shcherbak3.00871141LSep 28 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4041211632R. Lazebnyi2.751110311113LSep 28 · 00:30S. Rak2.6311119113D. Pesternikov1.44691171WSep 27 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.1411118113O. Napirko5.00711141LSep 27 · 22:30D. Neborak4.3311118123D. Pesternikov1.207911101LSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113WSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov1.801111113I. Kozachuk1.918690
N. Kovalchuk10
LOct 2 · 01:30D. Zeniuk1.301311113N. Kovalchuk3.4011590LOct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.831111113N. Kovalchuk1.838990WOct 1 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.731211871N. Kovalchuk2.0014811113LOct 1 · 20:00S. Rak1.361111113N. Kovalchuk3.008870WOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113WOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113LOct 1 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.20611118123N. Kovalchuk1.61119911102LSep 30 · 22:15M. Smyrnov2.381111113N. Kovalchuk1.537260WSep 30 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0010890N. Kovalchuk1.731211113WSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113
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