TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Nazar Kovalchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214118811711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 82 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Denys Shcherbak at 56.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 21–12 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:5556.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-12 in 33
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1775 vs Kovalchuk 1648
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Shcherbak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 70% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Shcherbak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.727 / Kovalchuk 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Shcherbak)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223612
Shcherbak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 162 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it92% 96 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it77% 129 of 168
Kovalchuk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 47 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak8wins
AwayKovalchuk2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak100%7 of 7
AwayKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak7Kovalchuk3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S2Shcherbak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Shcherbak4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Shcherbak4Kovalchuk4n = 8split evenly
S5Shcherbak5Kovalchuk0n = 5Shcherbak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakKovalchukS − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.9+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 696 vs 407 / 78251.9%52.1%361 / 696 vs 407 / 782Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.73/Kovalchuk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 21:00D. Shcherbak46129311113N. Kovalchuk44101111482
WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak48117127113N. Kovalchuk49911101182
WAug 28 · 19:05D. Shcherbak331111113N. Kovalchuk248790
WAug 22 · 10:05D. Shcherbak3811115113N. Kovalchuk29271191
LAug 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak208750N. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 8 · 06:35D. Shcherbak45111166113N. Kovalchuk4088111122
WJul 3 · 03:00D. Shcherbak45115117113N. Kovalchuk4381141192
LJun 29 · 01:30D. Shcherbak30711661N. Kovalchuk4211911113
WJun 15 · 00:30D. Shcherbak3851111113N. Kovalchuk29116661
WJun 3 · 04:35D. Shcherbak451111111113N. Kovalchuk4681311592
D. Shcherbak10
LOct 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.3611117113D. Shcherbak3.00871141LSep 29 · 10:35D. Shcherbak1.8391030I. Kozachuk1.831112113WSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak1.2216116113O. Napirko4.001451171WSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak1.4411114113R. Lazebnyi2.63861191WSep 29 · 06:05D. Shcherbak1.831111113D. Neborak1.837850WSep 29 · 04:35D. Shcherbak1.571111123I. Romaniak2.2559100LSep 28 · 18:35S. Rak1.6111711113D. Shcherbak2.20311371WSep 28 · 17:35D. Neborak1.8011614692D. Shcherbak1.914111211113WSep 28 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8376111162D. Shcherbak1.83111186113WSep 28 · 14:05O. Napirko3.008660D. Shcherbak1.361111113
N. Kovalchuk10
LOct 1 · 20:00S. Rak1.361111113N. Kovalchuk3.008870WOct 1 · 02:45O. Mitla2.7581280N. Kovalchuk1.401114113WOct 1 · 01:45O. Hura2.2511911652N. Kovalchuk1.57611811113LOct 1 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.20611118123N. Kovalchuk1.61119911102LSep 30 · 22:15M. Smyrnov2.381111113N. Kovalchuk1.537260WSep 30 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0010890N. Kovalchuk1.731211113LSep 30 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.38616814113N. Kovalchuk1.531114111292LSep 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.36101161162O. Mitla3.00124111113WSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura2.2013980N. Kovalchuk1.611511113LSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov1.91115129113N. Kovalchuk1.80611101192
Upcoming Matches
D. Shcherbak
Oct 2 · 01:00D. Shcherbak1.91I. Kozachuk1.80—Oct 2 · 03:00D. Shcherbak2.63D. Zeniuk1.44—Oct 2 · 12:35D. Shcherbak1.91I. Kozachuk1.80—Oct 2 · 13:35D. Shcherbak3.00D. Pesternikov1.36—Oct 2 · 15:35D. Shcherbak2.10S. Rak1.67—Oct 2 · 17:35D. Shcherbak2.63D. Zeniuk1.44—Oct 2 · 19:05D. Shcherbak1.44Y. Kravets2.63—
N. Kovalchuk
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